Putin needs war
Putin needs this war.
On February 21, 2022 Putin said he never believed in an independent Ukraine. Ukrainians are Russians. It is a mistake of history that they think otherwise. Putin refers to the concept of nationalism as a “virus.”
And, Putin whined that although Russia kindly pulled Ukraine out of debt post ‘91, the mother country has been given no respect. In fact, Ukraine scoffed at Russia, electing pro-West leadership. How ungrateful! “It was striking how the Ukrainian authorities always preferred dealing with Russia in a way that ensured that they enjoy all the rights and privileges while remaining free from any obligations,” he said.
On February 24, 2022 upon sending Russian troops into Ukraine, Putin claimed he had no other choice; he must defend Russia. "If Ukraine was to join NATO it would serve as a direct threat to the security of Russia." Putin said he also had an obligation to protect Russia’s way of life from depraved Americans who “sought to destroy our traditional values and force on us their false values that would erode us, our people from within.”
Putin’s two speeches on February 21 and February 24 inform me that:
Putin believes:
Ukraine is part of Russia.
Ukraine is ungrateful to Russia.
NATO is a military threat to Russia.
Ukraine and the West are disrespectful of Russia - her history, culture, and values.
He does not like America.
Putin also thinks:
His popularity in Russia will rise if he fights Ukraine.
Putin is right.
“President Vladimir V. Putin’s approval ratings have reached levels unseen in years. 83 percent of Russians said they approved of Mr. Putin’s actions, up from 69 percent in January.” (New York Times, March 31, 2022)
“One reason Russians still support Putin and the war in Ukraine has to do with the propaganda and disinformation being sown by the Kremlin. Last week, Putin banned the spreading of “false information” about the war — including calling it a war. He also blocked Facebook and Twitter, as well as a number of Western news outlets including the BBC, making it even harder for Russians to get outside information. And among state-sponsored media in Russia, the war is downplayed and cast as a peacekeeping mission designed to liberate Ukraine from Nazis and drug-addled dictators.” (March 11, 2022, fivethirtyeight.com)
Ukrainian ideas could lead Russians to revolt against Putin.
I don’t know about that.
But, Putin liked a Ukraine that was led by I-like-Russia leaders. Ukraine was led for much of the last 30 years by pro-Russia leadership. That record was broken as a result of the 2004 Orange Revolution and then the 2014 Maidan Protests. Both revolts led to the overthrow of Putin’s handpicked choice, Viktor Yanukovych. The Orange Revolution ended up giving a victory to the West leaning president, Viktor Yushchenko.
Yanukovych, stuck around until he did get elected a few years later and then he amassed a fortune of $12 billion, gave all the lucrative government jobs to his friends and family, and moved Ukraine back to the I-like-Russia circle. Of course, the I-like-Russia guy also said “no” to Ukraine in the EU.
This made the people mad, resulting in the 3 month Maidan Protests in 2014 when 28 protesters were killed. The I-like-Russia Yanukovych was forced to escape to Russia. A new president was elected who was committed to the rule of law, a state free of corruption, and an association with the European Union.
The last straw was in 2019 when the Ukrainians overwhelmingly elected a T.V. star, Volodymyr Zelensky. This election of the I-like-the-West candidate happened even though Putin had annexed the Crimea and separated parts of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast in 2014, preventing around 12% of eligible voters, many Russian supporters, from participating in the election.
The Zelensky election was bad for Putin because Zelensky wants Ukraine to become a member of the EU and he was instrumental in charging Putin’s friend, Viktor Medvedchuk with treason. That was very bad, because Viktor has a long friendship with the Kremlin - so much so that Vladimir Putin is the godfather of Medvedchuk's daughter.
Well, that was it! Putin knew this had to stop. He must invade Ukraine and teach her a lesson, protect Russia, protect his totalitarian rule, and defeat NATO and the United States.
And now here we are after 6 weeks of Putin’s War. His Russian troops are stalled. Putin and his soldiers are accused of war crimes for the brutal murder of women and children in Bucha and Mariupol. Ukrainians, both Russian speaking and Ukrainian speaking, are united in their resistance to the invading Russia. Both NATO and the EU are united and stronger than ever in their efforts against Russia. Putin’s ersatz allies are offended and may think that Putin has gone off the rails.
And what about those majority of Russians who support their leader? I hate to believe that most Russians believe what Putin is telling them. Unfortunately, there are Russians who look down on Ukrainians and speak of them as backward khokhol. Some Russians also believe that this war is the fault of the United States and that if America wants to wage war against Russia, almighty Russia will win. We Americans know from our last years in the Trump era how lies and propaganda from a popular news agency can form opinion. How it can feed into an underlying seething anger of an unhappy population who are poorly educated and insulated. Putin has successfully glommed onto years of Russian resentment against the United States and Ukraine.
Is it possible that the democratization of information can break through the wall of lies and propaganda built by Putin and his state run news agencies? Will young people turn against Putin and this war?
Yevhen Sverstiuk, the Ukrainian dissident who fought the Soviet government and was sent to the Gulags for it, told me in 2004, “Young people want to be free, but most do not want to be politically active. They don’t want to cause trouble. They don’t want to die for the truth. They think that the era of struggle is over and that now everyone can live the way they want to. They are happier believing lies.”
Do young Russians of 2022 want to be free and are they willing to fight for that freedom?