PART 3: Nuclear Weapons

Putin is playing a game of nuclear bluff, hoping that if he can throw out enough Dr. Strangelove threats of annihilation that he just might get what he wants.

It is no accident that Putin has stepped up threats just before the American midterm elections. As Putin hoped, the people in the West are showing signs of being tired of supporting Ukraine militarily as well as not wanting to push Putin so far that he will use nuclear weapons. Impending elections in Europe and the United States show some dissatisfaction with rising inflation, weakening currencies, and impending economic crises. The American conservative, Kevin McCarthy warned that a Republican controlled House would not write a “blank check” to Ukraine. Other politicians are calling for negotiations to avoid a nuclear confrontation.

In February Putin put Russia on high combat alert. Nuclear alert. This was Putin looking Joe Biden in the eye and saying, “Back off, buddy.”

Joe Biden did not back off. Nor did he escalate by parrying with his own nuclear threat. Instead, he responded by organizing an effective coalition of European and Asian allies to place heavy sanctions on Russia stopping the flow of arms and military technology into Russia, as well as providing $25 billion of military aid to Ukraine. Hoping to limit escalation of the war, the United States refuses to deliver any weapons to Ukraine that can reach deep into Russia or to support no-fly zones over Ukraine. If NATO sent in planes to protect Ukraine’s airways, any Russian plane that came into Ukrainian airspace could create a situation in which there could be direct combat between U.S. and Russian pilots.

Putin, facing embarrassing loses against the Ukrainians in September, tried to scare the West - “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.” (September 21, 2022). This is the ultimate terror of the nuclear age - fear of a leader backed against the wall holding nuclear bombs.

Historically, Putin was more cautious but then in 2021 he saw a shift in international relations with possible gains for Russia and himself. Foreign Affairs Peter Clement made an astute analysis: “A number of factors likely figured in Putin’s calculations: Russian security interests, a perceived window to advance broader geostrategic goals, and a desire to secure his place in Russian history. As is well known… Putin may have assessed that geopolitical circumstances offered a narrow opportunity to decisively break the seven-year stalemate [since the 2014 war] in eastern Ukraine.  As Moscow saw it, the United States was politically polarized; the American public was largely indifferent to Ukraine and wary of new foreign wars, especially after the messy U.S. departure from Afghanistan; longtime German Chancellor Angela Merkel was leaving office; the world was still preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic and Europe had a heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas.” (Peter Clement was a former Deputy Assistant Director of CIA for Europe and Eurasia, has a PhD in Russian history, and has written on the Cuban Missile Crisis)

President Joe Biden compares this moment to the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 when President John F. Kennedy struck a secret bargain with Nikita Khrushchev to remove American missiles from Turkey. Biden who has worked for years with Putin was asked by CNN whether he thought Putin would escalate the war using nuclear weapons, Biden said, “I don’t think he will, but it is irresponsible of him to talk about it.”

The Russian leader knows that this is true, but like a little kid, Putin makes “you started it first” claims, complaining that it is the West who first threatened Russia with nuclear weapons. “Washington, London and Brussels… have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring… to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.” (Vladimir Putin, September 21, 2022)) Putin did not present any evidence, nor have I found anything to prove that NATO has threatened Russia with weapons of mass destruction.

Last Sunday (October 23) the Kremlin threw out another dangerous rumor that the Ukrainians are planning to use a dirty bomb - a conventional explosive like dynamite that is wrapped with radiological waste. Instead of Russia being labeled the bad guy threatening nuclear escalation, Russia maintains it is the Ukrainian’s fault. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been sent to inspect for any dirty bombs. With the push back coming from NATO and the United States, Putin backed down a bit and then said, ‘well, the Ukrainians have the technology to build a dirty bomb…’

Russia has plenty of weapons to use against the West and doesn’t need to resort to nuclear ones. Russian missiles have bombed Ukraine’s power grid, a nuclear energy plant, local electrical plants. Russian attacks have damaged at least 30% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, raising concerns about the coming winter. In the last weeks, the Russians also introduced military drones that were supplied by Iran. The attack on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, most likely committed by Russia, worked as a warning to Europe to say “we can do anything we want” - we can blow up other energy sources, cyber attacks, or subsea cables for the Internet.

It does not look like the Russians have taken any steps to deploy nuclear weapons. It would be highly unpopular, both internationally and locally, if Russia were to pull out any of its nuclear arms.

On October 27th, Putin said at a Moscow-based geopolitical think-tank that Russia “had never talked about using nuclear weapons," and that a nuclear strike on Ukraine will make neither political nor military sense. (Kyiv Independent)

PART 2: ANNEXATION

Annexation

According to Vladimir Putin 4 regions of eastern Ukraine don’t want to be Ukrainians, in fact the people see themselves as Russians. And on September 27, Putin declared that a referendum conducted in those regions led to an overwhelming vote calling for separation from Ukraine. Putin announced that Russia had annexed Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson Oblasts. Putin said that the residents of the four regions would become Russia’s citizens “forever.” The Kremlin claims that 100% of the people living in the occupied territories voted to join Russia.

100%! Really? This kind of ‘democracy’ mirrors the kind of voting we saw during the Soviet Union. There are reports coming from Ukrainians that the referendum vote was conducted by occupying forces and that some people voted under gun point. The Luhansk Oblast Governor reported that Russian troops checked homes of residents and wrote down the names of locals who voted against annexation.

Putin said on February 24, the date of the Russian invasion, that the Ukrainian state is illegitimate and was conceived by “building their statehood on the negation of everything that united us, trying to distort the mentality and historical memory of millions of people, of entire generations living in Ukraine.” And Putin was coming to the defense of the good Russian people living in Ukraine - which is, in truth, just a colony of Russia.

Putin worked around the UN Charter that views seizure of foreign lands as a blatant form of violent aggression not seen since Hitler. Putin argues that his invasion is in support of the separatists - which is no more egregious than what the West did in Kosovo in 1998. In speaking of previously annexed Crimea in 2014, Putin said that NATO’s action in Kosovo was a precedent that “our western colleagues created with their own hands in a very similar situation, when they agreed that the unilateral separation of Kosovo from Serbia…was legitimate and did not require any permission from the country’s central authorities.”

Note: I will be the first to agree that historically the West has not always adhered to international law in its international relations. But the analysis and comparison of Russian invasion of Ukraine with NATO participation in the Kosovo-Serbia conflict is deeply flawed. In this war, Russia - an independent sovereign state has invaded and now is taking territory from another sovereign state. This kind of blatant international thievery happened in WWII with Hitler’s invasion of Czechoslovakia and Poland and in 1990 when Iraq attempted to annex Kuwait.

Turkey has announced it rejects Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory. South Korea stated it won't recognize Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory. The European Council on Friday, Sep. 30 vowed that they would “never recognize” Russia’s illegal annexation of four more regions in Ukraine.

In the United States, the Senate and the House of Representatives is drafting legislation to cut off all military and economic aid to any country that recognizes the annexed territories as part of Russia. And President Biden said that the United States would “never, never, never” recognize Russia’s claims.

The General Secretary of the United Nation said, “I want to underscore that the so-called “referenda” in the occupied regions were conducted during active armed conflict, in areas under Russian occupation, and outside Ukraine’s legal and constitutional framework. They cannot be called a genuine expression of the popular will.”

Even some of Russia’s closest allies – China, India, Kazakhstan, and Serbia – have indicated that they will not recognize the results of the referendums or the annexation.

The annexations of the 4 regions are important to Putin for a number of reasons. The four territories create a land corridor between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow ‘annexed’ in 2014. And Putin hopes that the new annexations will give legitimacy to his invasion to show both Russians and his global allies that he has accomplished what he promised. There also is fear that Putin is actually expanding Russian territory so that as the Ukrainian military moves back into occupied Ukrainian territory, then Putin will claim that Ukrainians are attacking Russia. Putin has said numerous times that if Russia is attacked that it will be within his right to use nuclear weapons to defend the homeland. The word ‘existential threat’ is repeated over and over.

Ironically, Russia does not actually militarily control all of the territory that it has claimed to annex. Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, was forced to acknowledge on October 3rd that Russia’s borders — as the Russian government newly defines them — remained in flux.

Next: Nuclear Threat

PART 1: MOBILIZATION, ANNEXATION, AND RATTLING NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Part 1: Putin - Mobilization, annexation, and Rattling nuclear weapons

October 8, 2022

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ANNOUNCEMENT - October 7, 2022

The Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian civil rights activists and organizations who are symbols of resistance and accountability during the largest ground war in Europe since World War II, set off by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Let me say up front that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is so fluid that it is difficult to know what is true and what is not. Propaganda is a tool of war and accurate information is difficult to find. I have heard some journalists say that “Putin is desperate'‘ and “there is complete chaos in Russia.”

Putin is trying to stem growing discontent following Ukraine’s wins in the east and the south. But, I think it is an overstatement to say that he is ‘desperate’ and the country is in ‘complete chaos.’ Although there have been scattered protests in different cities and a growing number of people leaving the country to avoid being drafted into the military, Putin has yet to lose the support of most of the Russian people.

The Levada Center in Russia conducted a survey on September 22nd reporting that the approval rating of Putin dropped from 83% in August to 77% after his call for mobilization. And the percentage of Russians who believe the country is going in the right direction declined from 67% to 60%. So, although this survey shows a slight slip in Putin’s popularity, it does not indicate that we can expect a massive popular uprising against Putin in the near future. But it is early, and there are rumors of some instability coming out of Russia.

The Russian withdrawal from Lyman in eastern Ukraine has led to public criticism of the military’s leadership. But, the criticism is not opposition to Putin or anti-war voices - it's pro-war voices who are unhappy with the way the defense ministry is conducting the war in Ukraine - they want a more aggressive and decisive defeat of Ukrainian forces.

It is telling that social media indicates what I imagine is actually going on in Russia. No one is blaming Putin. Dictatorship 101 - ‘Always find someone else to blame.’ One blogger attacked General Lapin and the chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, and the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu. "Are you men or not? Do you have any balls or not? Why are you still mincing your words lest something bad happens?" Ms. Kashevarova said. "Is the president aware of what is happening? Is anyone keeping him apprised? Where are the supplies? Where are the Armata [tanks]? Where is everything? How did it come to this? Has it all been stolen? Sold off? Where has it all gone? Did it even exist in the first place?" she asked.

Of course, true dissent in Russia has been suppressed. “Those voicing discontent in public were invariably punished: thousands were arrested for marching or holding signs that read, among other things, net vojne (“no to war”) or the phrase dva slova—“two words,” a euphemism for net vojne.” (Foreign Affairs, September 27, 2022)

There are rumblings of disapproval from Putin’s international allies, China and India. In September prior to the Ukrainian wins, China indicated that it had “questions and concerns” about the war in Ukraine and India’s President Modi told Putin that “today’s era is not an era of war.” These comments are, at best a gentle criticism, and at worse a strong reprimand. Putin felt a need to reassure both leaders that he would quickly bring the war to end. But, the war has not ended, and at this point the Ukrainians are looking pretty good. It does not look like the Putin war will end soon.

China thought that Putin’s operation against Ukraine was a simple "military exercise," but it has turned into a war that has driven up global energy and food prices that hurt China's economy. However, China has not abandoned Russia in terms of the enemy of my enemy is my friend scenario - China has allied itself with Russia as challengers to the United States as a global power and so despite China’s discomfort with the Russian war, China joined Russia's military drills in Russia's far eastern region. But this buddy buddy relationship between Putin and Xi may be fragile and self serving as long as it is just that, serving itself. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan agreed recently to a study to build a railroad that would pass through the three countries to Europe, and would bypass Russia. (VOA news)

Bottom line, Putin’s friends and allies are not asking him to abandon his war - they just want him to finish it. Which, as far as the Russian people are concerned, means pulverizing and defeating those nasty Ukrainians. Thus, following the surprising Ukrainian military victories in Ukraine's east and south, Putin addressed the Russian people on September 21, 2022 and called for partial mobilizations, annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory, and said the word ‘nuclear’ too many times. In the next three articles, I will address Putin’s three approaches to ending the war.

Mobilization

Putin in his address on September 21st said he would call up new troops.

The number of troops to be conscripted was not specified in Putin’s speech, but the number stated by the Ministry of Defense was 300,000. Some predict that the number will be closer to a million.

This is seen as a major escalation of the war. “The Russian army has taken many casualties (some estimate 80,000) out of an initial invasion force of about 190,000 troops.” (CIS, Sept 26, 2022) The drafting of a massive number of troops may not necessarily win the war, but it may discourage both the Europeans and the Unites States who might withdraw support of Ukraine.

A million new troops is a big number - but, the question is whether the Russian government actually has enough equipment to kit out that many new troops, whether there are sufficient weapons, and whether there is time to effectively train the new recruits. Will these troops be ready and able to take on the Ukrainians who, albeit less in number, are well trained and equipped by up-to-date NATO and American weapons? Will there be enough housing for troops? How about medical care?

Not surprisingly the draft of new troops has caused an uproar, and maybe some degree of panic. There are stories of men being rounded up at night and any man aged 18-60 might be conscripted. Although Putin promised that only men with prior military service, no illness and with fewer that 3 children would be called, NPR interviewed men who said that there have been no limits on which men are recruited.

Flights out of the country have been filled and prices of tickets have gone up significantly. There are reports that over 200,000 young men have escaped from Russia - nearly the same number of troops called up in February for the invasion.

But where can a potential conscript escape? Because of Western sanctions there are limited locations where Russians can go. Except for Serbia, there are no European states available so Russias are fleeing to neighboring countries like Georgia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged “humanity, patience and organization,” saying the Russians had been “forced to leave because of the current hopeless situation.” Georgia is getting massive numbers of new Russian immigrants - “With cars lined up for miles at its border and waits of more than 48 hours, Georgia said it would allow visitors to enter on foot. The number seeking entry almost doubled over the past week, to about 10,000 a day.”

Those escaping include young menwho are professionals in IT, science, business as well as academic scholars.

Ooops. Putin - trying to put Pandora back in the box - said that only reservists should be conscripted for the war and ordered officials to correct the mistakes made. But, at this point nobody believes Putin, and young men and sometimes their families continue to rush to the borders to escape being forced into the military.

I wonder why Europeans forbid the entry of Russians draft dodgers. Don’t we want to applaud young men refusing to fight in this unjust war? I realize that a large influx of Russians would be difficult to accommodate, especially when these countries are already taking in massive numbers of Ukrainian refugees. In addition, some east European states have little sympathy with Russians generally, having suffered at the hands of Russian/Soviet regimes. And some Europeans see these Russian men as previous supporters of Putin until now, when they face death on the battlefield. Or perhaps, as Winston Churchill is purported to have said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste” - strategically Europeans may hope that Russians will stay in Russia and will pressure Putin to end the war or, in the extreme, force an overthrow of Putin.

Looking forward to a future when there is no more war, I would like to say something about the Russian men who have escaped Russian conscription. It is not helpful or accurate to attack these men as ‘complicit cowards,’ as I read today on Twitter. Sadly, some men have left their homes, many without a place to go or money to support themselves to avoid fighting and dying in a war they don’t believe in. Today there is a report that a Russian rapper Russian Ivan Petunin, who performed as “Walkie,” committed suicide because he “refuses to murder another man.“ He left a video where he said Putin has taken all Russian men captive, leaving them with 3 choices: becoming a murderer, going to prison, or suicide.

Next: Annexation

This YouTube video is purportedly on the Russian/Georgian border. It has been dated September 27, 2022.

Part II - Sanctions

Image: Heng (Singapour / Singapore), Lianhe Zaobao

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Oh, no, talking about sanctions again? Oh, yes! This is cool stuff. Kind of like a class on international relations in a tea cup. In real time.

If our Western nations and Japan were on the ground fighting this war in Ukraine, I would be talking more about battles and munitions. But, what do I really know about that stuff, anyway? And, we over here in the West, are not fighting this war on the ground. We are fighting this war with our pocketbooks.

The news on sanctions changes daily. I am writing this article on sanctions on August 29, 2022.

Sanctions-Part I was about: 1) Why use sanctions? 2) What sanctions have been imposed - a list. For a daily up to date list of sanctions go to Peterson Institute for International Economics.

But, for all that … do Economic Sanctions work? The short answer is … there is no short answer. How successful these 2022 sanctions appear to be seems to depend on who you talk to.

According to:

Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to the sanctions as the “West’s Economic Blitzkrieg” and said that they never had a chance of succeeding. 

United States. - According to the United States government in April, “Experts predict Russia’s GDP will contract up to 15 percent this year, wiping out the last fifteen years of economic gains…”

World Bank - According to the World Bank in June, “2022 will be a bad year for the Russian economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to drop by over 11 %. This would be the largest drop in GDP since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

Mark Galeotti, British scholar on Russia - My favorite Russia scholar, calls these sanctions an ‘unparalleled economic war’ against Russia.  Galeotti predicts that Russia will begin to feel the bite of the sanctions by September.  And though the economic impact from the sanctions have been slow to take hold, the damages will be severe and it will take a long time to recover from them.  (See Mark Galeotti’s podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows, Episode # 70, June 19, 2022.  You can get In Moscow’s Shadows where you get your podcasts or go to https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985. ) Well, let’s see if Galeotti is correct. 

How successful will sanctions be and when will they hurt depends on a number of things:

1. How ‘bullet proof’ is Russia’s economy, i.e. financially how long can Russia hold out under these sanctions?

   1. The Russian economy has not collapsed. In June the Russian ruble which had plummeted in the first months of the sanctions, has now recovered to where it was before the war began. Really?

      The Russians, expecting sanctions, have prepared. From Russia’s experience in the 2014 war against the Ukrainians, the Russians were expecting sanctions from Europe and the United States. The Russians planned in advance to restore the ruble by manipulating the currency. This means that Europeans are required to pay for Russian oil in rubles. On top of that, Russia has a giant trade surplus.

      But if we look a bit closer, in Moscow the ruble is worth considerably less and on the black market the ruble sells for as little as 1/2 of its earlier value.

   2. Also, Russia defaulted on a debt for the first time since 1998. Russia has money to make a $100 million payment, but sanctions have made it impossible to pay it. The US has barred Russia from making debt payments with the $600 million it holds in US banks, making it harder for Russia to repay its international loans. So who cares if Russia doesn’t pay its debts? Well, the guy who lent Russia the money might be unhappy. More importantly, in the long run - if Russia doesn’t pay her debts then no one will lend Russia money in the future. This is a big deal.

      All successful countries borrow money. The United States, China, and Japan have the largest economies in the world - in that order. As of January 2018, the US had a national debt of $25 trillion, China is roughly $5.5 trillion in debt, and Japan has around $12 trillion in debt. A healthy growing economy borrows money. I know! Doesn’t make sense, but it is true.

      If Russia can not borrow money, its economy will stagnate. That is not good.

      BTW: I am clearly not an economist and foreign debt is a controversial and complicated topic. But, we do know that if you or a country can’t borrow money you are in trouble in the long term.

   3. Russia's central bank assets have been frozen so it can’t use the $630 billion reserves it has in foreign currencies. I know, $630,000,000,000! That is a lot of zeroes. As a further slap in the face, major Russian banks have been removed from the international financial messaging system SWIFT, which will delay payments for its oil and gas exports.

   4. Russia is also suffering from inflation. That should be no surprise. If goods are scarce, the ones you can find will be more expensive. On June 23rd, Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev reported that “Yearly inflations is looking to be 20-25%. (NPR Ilya Matveev)

2. How universally are countries imposing sanctions? Who is participating and who is not? Can Russia wiggle out of the impact of sanctions because other countries provide enough funds and products to ameliorate the financial pain?

SANCTION SUPPORTERS

1. The economic sanctions placed on Russia, though far from perfect, are the most comprehensive actions taken against a major power since World War II.  

   1. NATO - 29 of 30 members (Turkey is a hold out - see below)

      Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States. Greece, Germany, Spain, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. Sweden and Finland, new applicants to NATO, also support NATO’s sanctions.

   2. The European Union members

      Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Finland.

      It is understandable that the European states feel threatened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Previous neutral European states are working with NATO and the EU - Switzerland, Norway, and the UK.

      Germany - Since 1969, Germany has maintained a policy called Ostpolitik, choosing dependence on Russian energy to maintain peaceful relations with Russia and to integrate it into Europe, while allowing defense spending to fall. In response to the February 2022 invasion, Germany suspended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and announced a new policy of energy independence from Russia, admitting that Ostpolitik was a failure.

   3. The United States - President Biden has led the coalition imposing sanctions on Russia. See Ukraine Perspectives article on Biden’s leadership at “Biden: Cold War Warrior Armed for 2022 War.”

   4. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have joined in the sanction regime with the United States.

   5. The East Asian states (excluding China) support the United States not only because the United States is an important military ally and support, but also because the Russia/Ukraine situation mimics a similar situation with China/Taiwan. If Russia can invade an innocent neighbor with impunity, then does China now have permission to invade Taiwan? Or, in a worse case scenario, would the People’s Republic of China invade part or all of another East Asian country?  Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have banned exports of computer chips electronics, semiconductors, computers, sensors and lasers, navigation and avionics, and marine and aerospace equipment.

RUSSIAN SUPPORTERS

To offset the losses from the sanctions from Western and Asian allies, Russia increased energy exports to China, Turkey and India to make up for decreased revenues in Europe. Russia has given deep discounts on oil and gas and has pocketed an extra $24 billion from selling energy to those nations. The sanctions on Russia’s imports (the goods Russia brings into its own country) have proved much more effective than the sanctions on its exports (the goods Russia sends to other countries). Russia’s imports, since sanctions, have decreased 2 1/2 times - including pharmaceutical, auto manufacturing, textile, electrical and electronic equipment, and computer industries depend on imports.

1. Direct

   1. Belarus is the the only full supporter of Russia, allowing Russian troops to enter Ukraine from its Belarus.

   2. Other countries supporting Russia in the war with Ukraine are Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Kyrgyzstan.

2. Indirect

   1. Syria supports Moscow’s recognization of the republics in eastern Ukraine.

   2. Iran justifies the Russian invasion of Ukraine by saying Russia has been provoked by NATO.

   3. UAE and Saudi Arabia don’t want to get involved and haven’t condemned Russia’s aggression.

3. Neutral or wishy washy - all of these regions or countries made the requisite slap on the hand to Russia for invading Ukraine in a vote of the UN General Assembly, but now they refuse to join in imposing sanctions against Russia. Generally, these countries think the war is a European or regional problem that they do not want to get involved in.

   1. South and Central America

   2. Africa

   3. Middle East

   4. Southeast Asia

   5. India

   6. China

      China, the second largest economy in the world, deserves an article all of her own. The oldest civilization in the world and now the largest communist nation is complicated. Don’t let anyone kid you, China and her place in the world is not easily explained or dismissed.

   7. Turkey

      Turkey is complicated. Aren’t they all?

      Turkey is important to NATO because of her geographical intersection between Europe and Asia. The U.S. has a major air base in Turkey where America stores nuclear weapons and Turkey’s President Erdogan has blocked Russian warships headed toward Ukraine during the 2022 War. But, Turkey’s President has a difficult relationship with the other NATO members by being the only member to oppose admitting Finland and Sweden into NATO.

3. So…when will the sanctions defeat the big bear attacking the little state of Ukraine? When will Putin pull out his troops?

What I see -

1. Putin is in charge and doesn’t appear to have any intention of withdrawing his troops from Ukraine in the near future.

2. Polls show that the Russian people support the war, so we shouldn’t expect an uprising against Putin in the near future.

   The Kremlin has complete control of the Russian press and Internet. Most Russians don’t know about the massacre in Bucha or the destruction of maternity hospitals or bombing of train stations. They believe that Russian troops have been sent to Ukraine to save their neighbor from the Nazis in power - Nazis who took control of the country with the illegal overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. The vast majority of Russians think this war is the fault of Ukraine and the United States. The Russians passed legislation suppressing dissent, so the Kremlin suffers little to no resistance.

3. So - How long can Putin run the war with the troops he already has?

   How many Russian troops have been killed in the war? Any number I can give you is probably not defensible. The Russians and the Ukrainians say two different things. But, a number I hear most consistently is that after 6 months of war, the Russians have lost 45,000 personnel.

   Putin has yet to authorize a full draft to bring more recruits into the military. However, in July Russia began recruiting thousands of volunteers to restock its ranks in Ukraine. No experience needed. The recruiting is focused on poorer and more isolated regions where lots of money of money is rewarded to new recruits.

   On August 25th, Putin signed a decree to increase the Russian armed forces by 132,000 to take effect on January 1. I know, I don’t know why that odd number is needed. This increases the number of Russian troops to 2 million. “The decree comes just a day after Putin’s defense chief acknowledged that the Russian military campaign in Ukraine has stalled, with experts saying the Kremlin's troops appeared demoralized and understaffed.”

   The Kremlin hasn’t said where it is going to get the additional troops. Will he get private contractors or use conscripts? Putin has tried to avoid a complete mobilization - "Putin has been reluctant to do this because he has tried to isolate the Russian population from the costs of the war through using mercenaries from the Wagner private security organization, recruiting in the non-Russian ethnic republics of the country, from the prison population and using press gangs in occupied parts of Ukraine," said Neil Melvin, the director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, or RUSI, a London-based think tank. (NBC News)

4. The economy continues to support the war machine. How long the military can operate without new computer chips and replacement parts for its weapons is unknown.

5. Winter is coming. How long will the Russian military be able to fight during the winter? Remember Napoleon?

In Summary - Economic Sanctions are a form of warfare and it is the form now being used by allies of Ukraine against Russia. The sanction regime being used is the strongest and most coherent in the history of the modern world. Sanctions take a long time to stop military warfare. Russia is suffering from the effects of economic sanctions, but its aggressive war machine continues to wreak death and destruction on Ukraine. The war is spearheaded by one man, Vladimir Putin who has no intention of ending the war soon. Unfortunately, this war may last a long time. How long no one can predict. What we do know is that as long as Ukraine has the military and economic support of its allies, it may be able to hold off Russia long enough for….

So, this whole study of sanctions is a study in progress. And many questions remain. How long can Ukrainian allies hold sanctions against Russia? Will the allies be able to become independent of Russian oil and gas? Will the January 2023 boycott of oil and gas substantially hurt Russia? Will sanctions be enough to force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine? What is in the future for Ukraine? What about the civilian population of Russia? Oh, my…so many questions.

News Summary - July 27, 2022

Image: The Daily Star Lebanon

July 26 - Russia threatens to close an Israeli agency in Russia.

In March Israel joined other nations at the United Nations condemning Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

However, Israel did not join Western allies in sanctioning Russia, hoping to continue a relationship with Russia so that Putin did not use his military presence in Syria to oppose Israeli strikes in Syria against Iran and Hezbollah.

But, Israel did help the sanction-givers by banning planes and ships that are not registered in Israel from staying in the country for more than 24 hours. This was done to prevent sanctioned oligarchs from using Israel as a safe haven for their private jets and yachts. In addition, Israel has provided funds and support for Ukrainian refugees.

But, Israel’s semi-neutral stand against Russia may change. Israel has a new prime minister. As they said in American Westerns, there is a new sheriff in town. On July 1, Yair Lapid was selected prime minister until the elections in November. In March, prior to becoming prime minister, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid strongly opposed the Russian invasion and said that there was “no justification” for Russia’s aggression.

Lapid comes from a family of journalists and activists, many of whom suffered under dictatorships. Yair Lapid’s father was born in Yugoslavia (now Serbia) to Hungarian Jewish parents. His maternal grandfather David Giladi was from Transylvania (now Romania). His paternal grandfather Bela (Meir) Lampel, a lawyer and Zionist activist, was murdered in Mauthausen concentration camp, while his great-grandmother Hermione Lampel was sent to Auschwitz, where she was murdered in a gas chamber.

Russia is not happy with the the new Israeli Prime Minister and Russia is even suspected of interfering with the upcoming elections in November that could oust Lapid. Moscow on July 1 condemned an alleged Israeli airstrike near a Russian stronghold in Syria calling Israel’s years-long air campaign in Syria “categorically unacceptable” and demanding it cease. (Times of Israel) Israel has said in the past that it targets bases of Iran-allied militias, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah group that has fighters deployed in Syria.

To spark further contention, yesterday the Russian government threatened to outlaw a private agency that helps Russian Jews immigrate to Israel. (Washington Post)

Sharansky, a former Prisoner of Zion in the Soviet Union, lauded Lapid’s criticism of Moscow, saying that Lapid “brought Israel out of global shame,” Sharansky said. “The fears of speaking the truth about the Russian invasion reminded me of the status of court Jews, who needed to say ‘yes’ to the leader. Israel is not a ‘court country,’ certainly not for Russia.”

Nord Stream 1 & 2 Gas Lines

Germany stopped funding of Nord Stream 1. Now, Russia stops delivering gas to on Nord Stream 2.

July 27 - Russia cuts the flow of natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to one-fifth capacity. Germany builds terminals for liquid natural gas.

Although 46% of Germany’s energy already comes from alternative sources: wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, Germany is highly dependent on Russia for energy. And as a punishment for opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia cut back the amount of gas delivered to Germany.

In desperation and in fear of future Russian retaliation, Germany is looking to a different non-renewable resource, liquid natural gas (LNG). Germany, unlike other European nations has resisted moving to liquid gas, a more expensive alternative, and Germany has developed an overreliance on a single supplier, Russia. Germany has decided it needs its own fleet of floating terminals. These installations are for ships with apparatus to take chilled liquefied gas from seagoing tankers, warm it back into a vapor and move it onshore. The hope is for gas to start arriving in Germany before the end of winter as is needed for home heating. (NYTimes)

If there is success in importing L.N.G., it could smooth the way for German ports to become a hub for bringing in hydrogen (a renewal source), which may have a future as a fuel as the European Union promotes a greener substitute for natural gas in the fight against climate change.

See BBC on the future of fusion as possible energy source. (Note: fission is the kind of energy used today in nuclear plants.)

July 27 - Russia Threatens to withdraw from the International Space Station

In a ‘if you won’t play my way, I’ll take my ball and go home strategy, the new head of Russia’s space agency said that Russia will leave the International Space Station by 2024. This signals an end to one of the last remaining areas of cooperation between Russia and the United States.

In fairness, Russian officials have discussed leaving the ISS project since last year, citing aging equipment and growing safety risks. NASA said that it plans to continue operating the space station through the end of 2030.

July 27 - New Prosecutor General in Ukraine.

Andriy Kostin, a parliamentarian from President Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, has been selected as Ukraine’s new Prosecutor General. He was approved by parliament with 299 votes. He replaces Irina Venediktova.

I don’t know how well this new Prosecutor will do, either.

Kostin was a candidate in the 2021 competition for the Ukrainian Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO). Transparency International Ukraine argued that Kostin did not satisfy the integrity criteria of the competition and he was not chosen because he was accused of possible nepotism in the hiring of his wife as well as the fact that Kostin sold two flats in Odessa for a total of $32,000 without reporting the sale to the National Agency for Prevention of Corruption (NAPC).

Oh, well…

BillBoard built in occupied Ukraine

New Russian billboards in occupied Nova Kakhovka in southern Ukraine - "Russians and Ukrainians are one people, one whole," "Russia is here forever!"

Image and text: Twitter - July 27, 2022. Tadeusz Gibran, Belarusian journalist.

Russian Occupied Ukraine - A personal report

These personal accounts from refugees within Ukraine are from interviews by Volodymyr Khomik. Lutsk, Ukraine.

More than 7.7 million refugees have escaped from Ukraine and crossed over to Poland, Romania, Estonia, and Lithuania. Another 8 million people have been displaced and have found a safe place to stay in cities and towns like Lviv and Lutsk. Lutsk is in the northwest about 3 hours from the Polish border. Housing is scarce and most are staying in temporary housing.

Volodymyr wrote on June 19th: “These refugees I interviewed live in a dorm at the Lutsk Medical College. When I first got there the doors were closed and someone came up to me, asked why I was there and asked for some identification. Then, a lady called some unknown authority for permission. Then someone else led me to the refugees who were living on the 7th floor. It isn’t easy to find the refugees in town because they are housed all over the city, and no one seems to have a clear record of where they are living. Also, Ukraine is under martial law, so people are a bit distrustful and suspicious about strangers. Unfortunately, I guess I have become like a stranger to people here since there are many young people who’ve grown up here and I don’t know them. My coworkers are now retired and I don’t know the people who have taken their jobs. Sadly, I am a stranger among my own people.”

I imagine this is hard for Volodymyr to feel disconnected to his own community. When we lived in Lutsk, Volodymyr knew virtually everyone. Volodya, a professor at the university, was important in his own way. He was our ticket into meeting all kinds of interesting people from academics to musicians to lawyers and our neighbors - this opened up the whole world that was Lutsk, Ukraine. Now that he is retired and has become an Elder, Volodya no longer knows the young people who have taken the place of his friends. This is sometimes one of the little known scourges of getting older - being forgotten and ignored.

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Interview of Inna, a refugee in Lutsk, Ukraine by Volodymyr Khomyk. June 2022. Image: Volodymyr Khomik, Inna from Rubizhne, Luhans’ka oblast, worker at a local factory.

“My 24 year old daughter Karina, a student studying in Kharkiv, called me and said, ‘Mom, the war has started.’  Intense fighting broke out in Kharkiv.  The University evacuated the students from Kharkiv to the city of Kryvyi Rih, and from there the administration sent them to the city of Kamianets-Podilskyi.

On the first day of the war, only one missile strike occurred in Rubezhnoye.  The fighting there did not begin at the beginning of the war, but later.  In March, fighting began with powerful air strikes.  We sat in the basement for three days.

Then we moved to the town of Svatova.  The city was completely occupied on March 3rd.  There were no battles but the Russians occupied it.  It is very difficult to live in an occupied territory.  Our family did not have a good life there.  We were not free to say the word "Ukraine" or to say that we cared about Ukraine.

It ended very sadly.  My husband's brother fought in the armed forces of Ukraine.  Families in which men fought on the side of Ukraine had to leave the region, because the Russians used violence against the relatives of Ukrainian soldiers.  There were people who were whistle-blowers who went to the Russians and denounced those families whose sons or husbands belonged to the armed forces of Ukraine.

An acquaintance of mine, a classmate, lived with her 15 year old daughter and her husband who fought for Ukraine.  The Russian military broke into their house at night, and tried to rape their 15-year-old daughter but failed.  The family immediately fled the town of Svatove.

It was scary to pass checkpoints on the roads between different cities, because the Russians took the people off the buses, checked everything, and stripped them to their underwear.  Even young children were questioned about their attitudes towards Ukraine.  The Russian military at the checkpoints said that we Ukrainians are not grateful to them, and that they had come here to Ukraine from Russia to free us from the Nazis, and yet, we still support Ukraine.

We left Rubizhne and Svatove, but our parents had to stay there.  Also my grandparents, who are 95 years old were forced to stay because they are not able to leave the Luhansk region because their health does not allow them.  It is very difficult to live there now, very difficult.  There is no funding for humanitarian aid either.  The Russian occupiers promised to give them a Russian pension in rubles, but did not give them anything.  My parents received a Ukrainian senior pension in early February, but they no longer receive anything.  They qualify for a Ukrainian pension, but they can’t receive it because they live in an occupied territory where this pension is not available.  They have survived thanks to their small farm dacha in the village.  Those people who live in the cities and in apartment buildings and do not have a dacha or a farm, have a very hard time living. (Note: a dacha is a small piece of land allotted during Soviet times to citizens by the local government for gardening or growing vegetables for personal consumption.)

We can’t get ahold of our parents.  If the Internet ever works, I still can't talk to my parents freely, because the Russian’s are eavesdropping on everything and the Russian Federal Security Service is listening.

After I left Rubezhnoye, my house was destroyed during an air strike and everything was lost and the house was uninhabitable.  The Kadyrov's Chechens fought in Rubezhnoye and they looted apartments, and took household appliances, and everything else from abandoned homes back to Chechnya.

(Wikipedia: Ramzan Akhmadovich Kadyrov is a Russian and Chechen politician currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic. Kadyrov was reported to have been taking part in Russian operations outside Kyiv. In a video he called on Ukrainian forces to surrender “or you will be finished”. The Telegraph reported that on two occasions where Kadyrov had said he was in Ukraine he was proven not to be. In one instance he said he was in Mariupol at a petrol station and published a photo, but the pump in the background, Rosneft's Pulsar brand, does not operate in Ukraine. On another occasion, Kadyrov posted a video suggested he was meeting troops in Mariupol but he hosted a Russian official in Grozny on the same day. On 28 March 2022, President Putin promoted Kadyrov to the rank of lieutenant general. On 26 May 2022 Kadyrov threatened Poland. He was apparently upset by the Polish supply of weapons to Ukraine.)

The most dangerous anxious moment I experienced was when the Russians learned that my husband's brother Eugene Alexander had been in the Ukrainian army for 5 years and was fighting against Russia. The Russians armed with weapons and machine guns came to our home and began to search the apartment.  I told them that I have a small daughter and asked them to please not to scare her. Later, my husband also went to fight in the war and is now fighting for Ukraine.

In the future, I hope that our state will get back its entire territory and that we will be able to see our parents.  My biggest fear is that I may not have a chance to see my parents again.”

Note: This is an interesting interview for multiple reasons including stories of how the Russians are treating Ukrainians in occupied territories. It also shows how frightening it is to be away from your family that are stuck in Russian occupied territory and the fear that you will never be reunited. The belief that the Russian Federal Security Service-i.e FSB (former KGB) is omniscient and able to wiretap every house in Ukraine and is watching everyone may or may not be true, but a belief that the FSB has a Stalinesque superpower to control and watch the people is widely believed. The reference to the Chechens fighting in Ukraine is a well spread myth, a kind of a bogeyman story, used to scare Ukrainians into submission. How accurate these stories are is unknown, but referring to the brutal Chechens does a good job of scaring the everyday Ukrainian. My memory of the Ukrainians is that coming from generations of submission from the Soviets and the brutal Tsar, the people are quick to believe myths and to believe in the brutality of the government and, in particular, the Russians.

Part I - Sanctions on Russia

Image: The Economist

A short break from my reporting - It is the conversations and the questions that make my writing meaningful. I encourage you to send me questions, giving me fodder to write the next article. If you have questions or frustrations about this War and about Ukraine in general, please write via Comments below or by email. I love Ken’s comment about how he feels, “Please excuse my outburst. My brain waves got hold of my fingers and I simply could not get them under control.” Let your brain waves get a hold of your fingers, and send me a note.

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Kenneth wrote to me from Austin, Texas: “I am frustrated by the delay and foot dragging on the part of some countries and organizations like NATO, the European Union, the United Nations, and even our USA. It seems the more sanctions that are imposed the more aggressive the Russians become. Why do we/they dribble out these sanctions? I think we across the board need to be much more assertive. Please excuse my outburst. My brain waves got hold off my fingers and I simply could not get them under control. On a bit of an upbeat, there are quite a few Ukraine flags and signs to be seen here and the local Honda auto dealership has a HUGE Ukrainian flag flying from a very high flagpole.”

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I can understand your frustration - you feel that not enough is being done to help the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are fighting not only a war to protect their homeland, but they very well may be fighting the Russians to prevent Putin from expanding into other countries from Georgia to Moldavia, to Poland and Estonia, to Finland and Lithuania. Ukraine is out there by herself - suffering all the lost children, lost homes, lost families, lost economy - all necessary to stop imperialist Russia.

This is a 2 part series on the sanctions imposed on Russia for its aggression on Ukraine. It is a long and hopefully informative discussion on the topic. I know, sanctions don’t sound like a very sexy or interesting topic. But, believe me this is the stuff movies are made of - OK, stories that movies should be made of. Starring Meryl Streep, Robert Downey, Jr., and Jennifer Connelly.

I believe sanctions used in international relations is a very exciting topic. Is it possible to tweak economic globalization in order to restore peace? Can non-violent economic sanctions be successful in ridding human-kind of the tenet that the only way to stop an aggressor is through violent war fare?

I hope you enjoy this series. It is long, I know. I invite you to get yourself a glass of ice tea, put up your feet, and have a nice long read.

Why use sanctions?

Let’s start at an obvious point. The United States and Europe do not want to wage a ground and air war against Russia. It is not merely a question of will or bravery, it is dangerous to think of three super powers - United States, Europe, and Russia - fighting a 21st Century war. Such a war could lead to WW III, nuclear war looming - a fight we have avoided since 1945.  

The United States and the Europeans would rather fight this war against the aggressor using Ukraine as their agent. Believing it is better to spend trillions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, than to send our troops into Ukraine and Russia, we watch a David and Goliath battle from a distance as the Ukrainians fight the Russians for us.  It might cost us at the gas pump or in our taxes.  It might impact our cost of food.  But, this is better than sending our young men and women into battle or risking a nuclear war.  

In truth, what needs to happen is to stop Vladimir Putin. Got any ideas?  Isn’t there anyone who could talk sense into the dictator? I’ve got a very nice collection of books on haiku that I would trade for peace. How about a nice relaxing trip to upstate New York?

Since we don’t have any better ideas, we (and by ‘we’ I mean world leaders) have decided to bulk up the Ukrainian military through massive military aid and by pounding Russia with heavy economic sanctions.  Up to date, the U.S. has sent $7.6 billion in military weapons.  The European Union has promised 30 billion Euros; 6 billion Euros have been disbursed.  

Economic sanctions used against Russia.

The sanctions target exports, imports, banks, businesses, and individuals.

Here is a list.

1. Nonrenewable energy (oil, gas, and coal)

   1. The United States - banned all imports of oil, gas and coal.

   2. Germany - stopped funding and building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

   3. Oil and gas companies withdrew from Russia.

      • Exxon Mobil - exited all its Russian oil and gas business, valued at more than $4 billion.

      • BP - withdrew its 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft, which may cost BP as much as $25 billion.

      • Shell - severed ties with Russian gas giant Gazprom and stopped its $1 billion financing of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

      • Erin, the Italian energy company - suspended all new purchases of oil and oil products from Russia.

   4. The EU - banned oil imports by sea by the end of 2022.

      Exception: Hungary’s Viktor Orban, a Putin ally, is not part of the ban. In fairness, Hungary is highly dependent on Russian oil, getting 60% of its gas and oil from Russia via pipeline. The rest of Europe gets around 30% of its oil from Russia.

      Germany and Poland have vowed to end all pipeline deliveries, including those delivered by sea.

   5. The EU will halt Russian coal imports this August.

   6. The EU’s future reliance on Russian oil will be reduced- the EU has plans to reduce Russian gas imports by two thirds this year, and completely by 2030.

   7. The British will end all Russian oil imports by the end of 2022.

   8. Switzerland placed an embargo on crude oil and certain refined petroleum products from Russia.

      Result: Gas and oil prices in the world have gone up. Inflation has gone up. Transportation prices have gone up. The value of the yen and the Euro have plummeted. The electorate have forgotten why they are paying higher prices, are blaming their leaders, and are not happy.

      The European Union told its member countries on July 20th that they must cut consumption by 15 percent between now and the springtime to stave off a major crisis as Russia threatens to cut off gas and oil prior to EU imposing sanctions. (NY Times)

      “When Putin cuts gas supplies, he uses energy as a weapon,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wrote in an opinion piece in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Monday. “Not even the Soviet Union did that during the Cold War,”

      July 20 - “Nuremberg has stopped illuminating its historic buildings, Hamburg landlords are rationing hot water, and Berlin may turn off nonessential traffic lights at night. In Potsdam, even the temperatures on Germany’s beloved saunas have been turned down. It is part of a desperate scramble across Europe to reduce energy consumption in a summer of soaring temperatures and prices and to build up natural gas supplies ahead of the bitter chill of winter — in anticipation that Russia may shut off the gas completely.

      Russia has already stopped sending gas to the Baltic states and Poland, Bulgaria and Finland, and flows to Denmark, the Netherlands and Italy have been reduced…Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian gas makes it especially vulnerable to disruptions…Moscow, supplies 30 percent of the natural gas used for Germany’s electricity production and home heating.” (Washington Post)

      European sanctions against the import of oil and gas from Russia are the most severe of all sanctions and right now feels like it hurts non-Russians more than Russians. But, scholars tell us, don’t be fooled. The boycott of Russian oil will cost Russia bunches of billions of dollars. See Sanctions: Part II. Just let me be clear, the largest export from Russia is oil and gas. Russia really doesn’t have another export. She depends on the world’s addiction to oil.

      Some scholars see this oil war as an opportunity to nudge countries to develop more alternative forms of energy. “There’s no reason why you shouldn’t read this crisis as a huge invitation to just go big on renewables and flexible reserve capacity.” (Adam Tooze, March 1, 2022 interview with Ezra Klein.)

2. Banking

   1. Russian Central Bank- Assets frozen. $630 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, are frozen.

   2. All major Russian banks cut off from SWIFT (like iMessage for Banks, how funds are transferred). Admittedly Banks can find other ways to message, for example, through secured emails, but it will be very cumbersome and inefficient. It’s the combination of SWIFT and the ban on the Russian central bank and their banking system that is bad. They cannot get payments; they cannot access their dollar assets. As a result, they will be unable to participate in the global network of payments.)

   3. U.S. - restrictions against four major Russian banks.

   4. The UK - all major Russian banks have assets frozen and they will be excluded from the British financial system.

      Result: June 27, 2022. Defaulted: The last time Russian defaulted on it debts was in 1918 during the Russian Revolution. Today Russia defaulted because they can’t find a way to pay their overseas creditors. Remember, no SWIFT and no Western states dealing with Russian banks.

      So, who cares? Well, if defaulting continues, Russia will not be able to get credit in the future. Economists are asking, “Will the default chip away at Russia's standing with still-friendly countries? Will Russia be able to borrow on the international market going forward?” (June 27, 2022 NPR) Is Russian being cornered or is it burning its own bridges?

3. Airspace

   1. The EU, the UK, Canada, and the U.S. closed its airspace to Russian airlines.

   2. Even China’s civil aviation authority banned from China’s airspace Airbuses and Boeings which Russia stole from international lessors shortly after it invaded Ukraine back in February. “In defiance (of global sanctions), Russia’s aviation regulator recommended on March 5 that all Russian airlines with planes leased from foreign carriers, and not registered in Russia, return home immediately and not land anywhere overseas, lest the aircraft be detained and repossessed. Before lessors caught wind of the plot, Russia had absconded with over 500 of their aircraft and had them tucked away in Russian hangars, forevermore out of reach. The planes were valued at over US$10 billion.” （OCCRP)

   3. Finnair rerouted its flights to Asia over the North Pole, the first time a polar route has been used for commercial flights in nearly 30 years.

      Result: No Western or Japanese planes are flying into or out of Russia or are flying over Russia. My friends scheduled in May to fly from Japan to Iceland and instead of flying West over Russia, they had to fly down to Frankfurt, and then over to Iceland. A much longer trip and more costly to the airline.

      Tourism in and out of Russia is kaput! 24.6 million tourists traveled to Russian in 2018. St. Petersburg and Moscow. No Hermitage Museum, Georgian food restaurants, palaces, rivers and canals. And, of course the Russians and Ukrainians aren’t doing any traveling, either. In 2019, Russians spent US$ 36 billion traveling abroad.

      The frequency of flights to some destinations has been reduced and other routes have been dropped.

      Russia issued a reciprocal ban, forcing many airlines to reroute or cancel flights. Aeroflot suspended flights to international destinations due to airspace restrictions and to counter the "risk" of aircraft being repossessed by lessors. (That’s what you get for stealing those planes in the first place!)

4. Multinational companies

   The following is a small portion of the companies that are boycotting Russia.

   1. Food and drink companies.

      1. Starbucks, Coca Cola, and Pepsi - suspended sales in Russia.

      2. Yum Brands (the parent company of KFC and Pizza Hut) - stopped activity and investment in Russia.

      3. Burger King - ended support for its 800 locations operated by franchises in Russia.

      4. Carlsberg, the world’s third-largest beer company - stopped selling beer in Russia.

      Result: Russians will have to forego their morning latte at Starbucks and instead of going to McDonald’s they will have to go to Vkusno & Tochka - Tasty Period, where they will have no French fries until the Fall. (See my News Summary of July 9.) Thousands of Russian jobs will be lost.

      2. Transportation companies

      1. Airbus -no parts and services to Russia.

      2. Australia banned the export of alumina, bauxite and other aluminium ores to Russia.

      3. Boeing - blocked the sale of parts and services to Russia. Boeing has also stopped buying titanium from Russia.

      4. GM, Ford, Renault, and even the Chinese owned Volvo Cars - stopped working or selling in Russia.

      5. DHL, FedEx, and UPS - suspended shipments to and from Russia and Belarus.

      6. Harley Davidson - suspended shipments to Russia.

      7. Stellantis - the company which makes Jeep, Fiat and Peugeot vehicles - suspended imports and exports to Russia.

         Result: The auto industry is a very large industry in Russia. Up to 600,000 are employed in an industry that depends on foreign parts and cars. Again, airplanes will need new parts and new airplanes need to be built.

         Eurpope expressed concern about the safety of Western-made aircraft flying in Russia without proper access to spare parts or maintenance.

      3. Finance Companies

      1. Pricewaterhouse, Coopers, and Deloitte - no longer operating in Russia and Belarus.

      2. Western Union- ceased its operations in Russia and Belarus.

      4. Other companies have stopped working or investing in Russia.

      Nike, Adidas, Uniqlo, TJ Maxx, Hermes, and Hugo Boss. Unilever, Ikea, and Estée Lauder.

      Netflix - suspended all serivce in the country.

      Spotify - paid subscription will no longer be available in Russa.

      Disney is out!

      Hitachi - suspended business in Russia.

      Top designer companies, including Prada, Gucci, and Dior shut their doors in Russia.

      Result: Oh, no! How are Russians going to watch “The Great British Bake-Off”on Netflix? Wealthier Russians will not be able to buy the newest handbag or watch from Prada and Dior. And, wait! How are Russian kids going to be able to watch Thor or Frozen?

   8. Individuals

   1. The US, EU, UK and other countries sanctioned more than 11,000 Russian individuals and businesses. As of June 2022, the U.S. and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion worth of sanctioned Russians’ funds and other financial assets. This includes yachts, mansions, art work, and bank accounts.

   2. Russian government officials and family members have been sanctioned. Assets belonging to President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are frozen in the US, EU, UK and Canada.

   3. The UK has also stopped the sale of "golden visas", which allowed wealthy Russians to get British residency rights.

      Result: Russian citizens are stuck in Russia. Wealthy Russians and oligarchs have lost their mansions and Picassos.

      Wealthy Russian have shifted funds worth hundreds of millions of dollars from sanctioning countries, like the UK and Switzerland, to countries that have not imposed sanctions, like the United Arab Emirates.

   9. Tech companies

   1. Apple - limiting services in Russia and ceased exports of its products.

   2. Google - blocked all online advertising.

   3. IBM - suspended business in Russia.

   4. Microsoft - suspended sale of its products.

   5. The United States and 36 allies have banned the export of semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, lasers, avionics and maritime technology. “Semiconductors, are the brains that operate most modern electronics, from appliances to fighter jets. Russia manufactures few of its own chips, historically relying on imports from Asian and Western companies.” (Washington Post, May 11, 2022)

      Result: Russians are in some instances being forced to use computer chips from dishwashers and refrigerators in some military equipment. Two Russian tank manufacturers stopped production because of a lack of components. (Washington Post, May 11, 2022)

      “President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is facing ‘colossal challenges’ in the high-tech sector, an unusually frank admission of the difficulties the Kremlin is experiencing as sanctions begin to bite.” (July 18, 2022 - Bloomberg)

      Between 50,000 and 70,000 tech professionals have left Russia. According to the Russian Association for Electronic Communications, at least 100,000 more are expected to leave in the coming months. If these calculations are correct, that’s 10 percent of the total number of IT specialists in Russia. (June 1, 2022 - Slate). Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the Biden administration intends to remove some visa restrictions for highly skilled professionals from Russia who want to relocate to the United States. Under current proposals, Russians with master’s or Ph.D. degrees in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields, trained in the U.S. or abroad, could qualify for a simplified entry process.

      Ah ha! Those tricky Americans are stealing Russia’s scientists and tech wizards!!!

Well, that is a lot of billions - $$$$. Lots of jobs. It looks like Russia has been thrown out of the globalization game. That must sting! So how come Putin hasn’t thrown up his arms and said, “I give up?” Basta! Uncle!!!

That’s the question, isn’t it? Let’s talk about that in the next article, Sanctions - Part II. I know, you can hardly wait…

Who is Putin?

Image: The New Yorker

Who is Putin and what can we expect? Is Putin the source of all evil? I have collected a couple of views for you to consider. The first is a long, yet insightful and entertaining discussion featuring my favorite modern Russian scholar, Mark Galeotti. The 2nd is a short synopsis of the views of a scholar from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tatiana Stanovaya.

July 18, 2022 - Today’s New York Times guest opinion by scholar Tatiana Stanovaya encapsulates her 2 decades of study of Putin in the title of her article, Putin Thinks He’s Winning. According to the scholar, Putin has three goals which Ms. Stanovaya creatively sees as fitting together like a charming matryoshka doll - the Matryoshka Doll Theory?

In summary - here is Ms. Stanovaya’s theory.

1st, Take control of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Check! Almost.

2nd, Take Kyiv and Russify Ukraine. Not so easy.

At first, Putin expected to take Kyiv in the early days of the War. Drat! That didn’t go as quickly or effectively as he expected. Those pesky Ukrainians resisted and showed a resolve he did not predict. No worries. Putin has shifted his expectations and sees this as a longer goal. Ukraine will understandably get so tired of this War, Putin will make sure that the innocent civilians suffer - bomb maternity wards, destroy apartments buildings and wedding halls, evacuate Ukrainian children to Russia. Use of assorted war crimes are the preferred military strategy. So, Kyiv will have to accept Putin’s demands and they will accept a Russification of the country. Putin likes to call it the ‘Deukrainianization” of Ukraine. Charming. Rename streets and towns (how about Putingrad?), rewrite history, get rid of those nasty nationalists, make Russian the only language of trade, and be sure that the Russian view of education and culture prevails. Nifty! It has been reported that Russian authorities are ordering that everything painted blue and yellow (the colors of the Ukrainian flag) be removed or changed. Ukrainians in occupied lands have been given Russian passports. The Ukrainian government will be replaced with pro-Kremlin toadies and any cooperation with the West will be limited to whatever the Kremlin says is OK.

3rd, Build a new world order. The Putinmare. (Get it? Putin and nightmare combined. Just a little humor. Sorry...)

Of course, Putin’s evil Oberhauser persona, wants a new world order. Really? Yes, really. Putin sees the West (especially the immoral Americans) as the archenemy. According to Ms. Stanovaya, Putin predicts that there is a future for a “good West” that will conduct friendly business relations with Russia. Putin favors those amenable leaders like himself, including Viktor Orban in Hungary. Even America’s Fox News’ Tucker Carlson loves Orban and his modified election laws to favor his party and that he has curbed freedom of the press, passed anti-LGBTQ laws, and waged a war against immigration. Putin also likes Marine Le Pen in France, and of course, Donald Trump - all of whom are willing patsies to overlook Putin’s bad behavior and support ways of weakening democracy. Putin is pretty sure that high inflation and high energy prices will support the ‘good West people’ and make the electorate rise up against those old fashioned leaders who fight for democratic institutions.

According to the Stanovaya, “There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him (Putin) should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.”

Music and Ukraine

mbfitzmahan. Shauna 1997. Photo negative.

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July 2022 - After 5 months of War, it feels like you’ve had enough. Check the front page of the newspaper, Ukrainian news that in March had its own section at the top of the page, has been relegated to a single article at the bottom. Inflation, pandemic, war, Democrats v. Republicans, assassination, shootings… it is too much. Ack!

And, I wish I could tell you that the Ukrainians are going to defeat Russia in the next few days or months. I cannot. But, let’s give the Ukrainians more time to act as our agents, to fight the war for us. Ukraine is worth fighting for. And the Ukrainians are fighting harder than ever to save their homeland. And, it is a home worth saving - it is a culture that enriches all of us worldwide. And, don’t forget that we are fighting a dictator that has his eyes on more than just Ukraine; he smacks his lips looking beyond.

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1997 Lutsk.

Without movie theaters, a TV or a computer - an evening of making music was the most entertaining part of our week. A troop of students appeared at our door holding gifts of food - baked chicken, Ukrainian bread, and pickles made by grandmother. We didn’t have much room so we gathered in the largest bedroom. A smattering of American music joined our playlist, but most of the music came from Ukrainian and Russian hits. Shauna, having brought her Lyle guitar all the way from Vashon to Lutsk, played Counting Crows’ “Raining in Baltimore” and Lyle Lovett’s “She’s No Lady.” Max took the guitar and all eyes turned to the singer, completely attentive as if he were the most cherished soloist at the concert hall. There was little talking, it was all about music. One evening, a voice cried out, “Tanya, recite Pushkin!” Cheers rose up from the party, “Yes! Yes! Yes!” Tanya shyly looking at her admirers, stood up and began a recitation in Russian. Suddenly, she stopped and looked at me, “Maureen, would you like me to translate?” “No, just continue in Russian.” Tanya recited Pushkin for 30 minutes.

Shauna learned a few Ukrainian songs to play on her guitar. I still ask her to play Vona. “Oh, Mom, I don’t know if I remember it… OK. Let me think...” And, then our memories of Ukraine - of our friends - come strumming out of that old guitar. Out come memories of being stuck together on the Ukrainian-Polish border where Shauna serenaded tired travelers.

Listen to a version of Vona below.

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The lyrics of “A Vona” by Plach Yeremiji seem to apply to feelings of wartime Ukraine.

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not today for sure tomorrow

friends will share the joy and sorrow

that's the time to drink some wine and chill

some will bring white-petaled asters

life is more than charms to master

yes the life is beautiful and real

and she will

and she will

be sitting sad and still

won’t get drunk

from cheap wine drinking

making sense of what is real

I will sing for her and crystals

shall vibrate not knowing how

with my voice in silent distance

overcome this sadness now

so it happened God knows where

I love her free flowing hair

I love her thin lips and know them well

soon enough the leaves will fall and

we’ll disperse while cities calling

with the voice so Russified like hell

so she will

so she will

be sitting sad and still

won’t get drunk

from cheap wine drinking

making sense of what is real

oh my little girl with sad eyes

oh my golden fate and rest

I continue with my screaming

for the night is bare and vast

2014 Maidan Protest

On a personal note: This is the last article I will post from Tokyo for “Ukraine: Perspectives.” Next you will be hearing from me from New York in the Hudson Valley.

I realize that many of you are suffering from the everyday-is-a-bad-news-day syndrome. Yet, the War continues in Ukraine - an unprovoked tragedy on innocent men, women, and children. I am committed to keeping you up to date on Ukraine and the 2022 War. Please send me any questions you might have that can form topics for future articles.

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Image: Mstyslav Chernov, Protesters fighting government forces on Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Kiev on 18 February 2014.

The Maidan Protests: November 21, 2013 to February 24, 2014.

The 3 month protest and occupation of Kyiv’s Maidan Independence Square in 2014 has an outsized importance in the history of the Russo-Ukraine War. Those massive demonstrations of 2014 led Ukraine to shift decidedly toward Europe and away from Russia. Ukrainian youth have become more politically active - calling for an end to chronic corruption and the establishment of reforms committed to a more liberal democratic state in line with the demands of the European Union. The capitulation of the government to the demands of the Maidan demonstrators lead Putin to annex Crimea and support the creation of separate states in Donetsk and Luhansk.

It is no coincidence that the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia began on February 24, 2022; February 24, 2014 is the date of the end of the Maidan Protests.

The protest was started in the rain and snow with students yelling, “We are a European nation and we will fight for our future.” At first a few hundred students gathered - connected through social media and who were frustrated that President Yanukovych who had been elected in 2010 refused to sign a trade agreement with the European Union as he had promised in the elections. “Ukraine is part of Europe!” they yelled. “I came here to defend my future, the future of my children.” They were joined by thousands.

Yanukovych responded by passing Anti-Protest Laws on January 16, 2014.

Some of the laws were just silly and desperate such as: 1) passing an anti-mask law with the provision of up to 15 days in jail for participation in peaceful gatherings wearing a mask, camouflage clothing, scarf, helmet, or other means of concealing or protecting one's face or head, and 2) giving up to 15 days in jail for unauthorised installation of tents, stages and sound equipment.

Other laws were signs of a tightening dictatorship - harsh laws restricting freedom of speech and assembly: 1) giving the government the ability to prohibit access to the Internet as well as the right to censor any Internet sites; 2) disallowing NGOs and churches from supporting civil protests; 3) giving amnesty to those who commit crimes against protestors, including the Berkut and other police; and 4) penalizing the blocking of government buildings.

The protestors responded by wearing ski helmets, diving masks and flippers. Some wore red helmets with the words “Fuck You” on the back. Old women wore metal pots decorated with flowers and one protester said sardonically, “You see a lot of people wearing kitchen pots. They forgot to put that in their laws. They should add that immediately.”

Yanukovych sent in armed troops. The Berkut came armed with iron sticks, guns, and sniper rifles. The Berkut was a nasty group of armed troops. A Ukrainian system of special riot police, it was a successor of the brutal Soviet OMON.

The protesters hoped to bring the police and Berkut over to their side. One yelled into a megaphone saying, “I appeal to the police. You gave an oath to serve the Ukrainian nation, not to Yanukovych and his gang!” And the crowds chanted, “Join us. You are Ukrainians. How can you do this?” And, “Shame, shame, shame.” “Drop your guns.” Priests from a nearby monastery begged the police to put down their weapons.

But, Yanukovych’s troops did not lay down their iron sticks or their rifles. And why not? Because, on January 27th the Minister of Defense announced sharp pay raises for military personnel, and the Cabinet of Ministers adopted a secret resolution to increase the size of the Berkut force sixfold to 30,000; they also set up a fund to buy additional ammunition. Those officers standing in the front lines received pay bonuses, and extra bonuses for capturing protesters.

The country was furious. The protesters did not disperse- they were unrelenting and their numbers grew in size. Many regions of the country sent in protesters, young and old. “Yanukovych raised his hand against our children!” they yelled. The military reserve came to support the protesters, to build barricades and teach the students to fight back. Now there were demands for new elections and demands to rid the country of the corrupt Putin-supporting government.

And finally, as there was no sign that protests would end, in February 2014 Viktor Yanokovych escaped from Kyiv and turned to his friend Putin for asylum. The Parliament voted to remove Yanukovych from office by a vote of 328 to 0 and the subsequent interim government signed the EU association agreement. New elections were held and a West leaning leader, Petro Poroshenko, was elected president.

The new government passed legislation to limit the powers of the President. The President lost the power to nominate the Prime Minister which became the role of the Parliament. In addition, to the removal of Yanokovych and the limitation of presidential powers, there was a large scale purge of civil servants who had been hired by Yanokovych.

Another outcome of the removal of the pro-Russian leaders was a removal of all monuments and signs left over from the now defunct Soviet Union - the Soviet Union - a symbol of another Russian occupation.

6 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union I was surprised at the many statutes and monuments honoring Lenin and his followers. Streets and towns were named after Soviet leaders - Nikita Khruschev was particularly popular. Even our dorm in Lutsk was a “Khruschev building,” in honor of the man who was responsible for building so many 5 story buildings post WW II.

The Decommunization law of 2015 led to the renaming of 51,493 streets and 987 villages - 1,320 monuments to Lenin and 1,069 monuments to other communist figures were removed. One of the main provisions of the bill was a declaration that the Soviet Union was a "criminal state" and it had "pursued a state policy of terror." The legislation prohibited the use of communist symbols. Interestingly, the parliament also passed a law that replaced the term "Great Patriotic War” with "World War II,” a change that was symbolic of Ukraine’s rejection of Russia and symbolically moved Ukraine closer to Europe as the term World War II is more in line with the vocabulary of European nations and the United States.

The Minister of the Interior commenced a lengthy campaign to ban the Ukrainian Communist Party, however the Party survived and campaigned to defeat President Zelensky’s efforts to make reforms after 2019. This 2022 War may have put the nail on the coffin nf the Ukrainian Communist Party, heir to its Soviet predecessor. In March, Zelensky led and successfully banned all Communist Parties and Russian leaning parties claiming that these parties supported Russia in its aggressive war. “Given the full-scale war unleashed by Russia, and the political ties that a number of political structures have with this state, (Ukraine will) suspend any activity of a number of political parties for the period of martial law,” said Zelensky. The Opposition Platform for Life, Zelensky’s biggest opposition party, led by Viktor Medvedchuk who is a pro-Moscow oligarch with very close ties to Putin was also banned. Last year Ukraine charged Medvedchuk with treason and placed the oligarch under house arrest- making Putin, godfather to Medvedchuk’s daughter, unhappy!

Putin has not forgotten Maidan, or the loss of his puppet leader. He has not forgiven Ukraine and its decommunization campaign - or for changing the name of Kyiv, or banning the Communist Party, or for dishonoring his godchild’s father. He has not forgotten any of it. He believes that Russia has been betrayed and so has he. Putin said a few days before invading Ukraine, “We can see that the forces that staged the coup in Ukraine in 2014 have seized power (and) are keeping it with the help of an ornamental election procedure…”

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Update June 16, 2022 - The Trial as a War Crime

Update to “1st Ukrainian War Crime Trial”

As I suggested in my article of May 27th, it is no surprise that there would be war time trials of Ukrainian soldiers. And, sadly, it is also no surprise that the Russians or the separatist regions would conduct trials of POWs in a manner that fails to adhere to international standards of rule of law. According to the UN rights office, “Since 2015, we have observed that the so-called judiciary within these self-contained republics has not complied with essential fair trial guarantees, such as public hearings, independence, impartiality of the courts and the right not to be compelled to testify.”

From UN News: Death sentence for Ukraine foreign fighters is a war crime: UN rights office

The United Nation Human Right office on June 10, 2022 condemned the death sentence handed down to three foreign fighters in Ukraine by a court in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. “Such trials against prisoners of war amount to a war crime,” said OHCHR spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani.

The three men - Britons Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, and Moroccan Saaudun Brahim – were captured while fighting for Ukraine, reportedly defending the southern port city of Mariupol.

Bitter fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces since the Russian invasion on 24 February flattened the city, where UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet has previously condemned attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, that have likely caused thousands of deaths.

“OHCHR is concerned about the so-called Supreme Court of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic sentencing three servicemen to death,” said Ms. Shamdasani. “According to the chief command of Ukraine, all the men were part of the Ukrainian armed forces and if that is the case, they should not be considered as mercenaries.”

Answering a question at the regular briefing in New York on Thursday about the death sentences handed down, the UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric, said the the Organization always has "and we always will", opposed the death penalty under any circumstances. "And we would call on the combatants who have been detained, to be afforded international protection, and to be treated according to the Geneva Conventions", he added.

Longstanding concerns

The UN rights office spokesperson also highlighted longstanding concerns about fair trial violations in Ukraine’s breakaway eastern regions bordering Russia. “Since 2015, we have observed that the so-called judiciary within these self-contained republics has not complied with essential fair trial guarantees, such as public hearings, independence, impartiality of the courts and the right not to be compelled to testify.”

Speaking in Geneva, Ms. Shamdasani added that “such trials against prisoners of war amount to a war crime. In the case of the use of the death penalty, fair trial guarantees are of course all the more important.”

United Nations and the Russo-Ukraine War

In the evolution of mankind, the United Nations is a massive step forward in setting standards for peace, prosperity, and compassion.  I am a huge fan of the United Nations.  The United Nations has accomplished much in only 77 years.  It has been instrumental in averting any massively destructive world wars, provided care for millions of refugees, mediated between angry nations, adjudicated disputes, made high standards of human rights a global reality, and developed economic incentives to avoid disputes. In response to the humanitarian crisis caused by the Russo-Ukraine War in the last 3 months, the United Nations is raising $2.25 billion for humanitarian assistance to Ukrainians citizens and refugees.

Let me dispel a myth about the UN - the UN was formed not only to keep the peace, but with 4 goals in mind. 1. The UN was to safeguard peace and security in order ‘‘to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.’’ 2. The UN was ‘‘to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights.’’ 3. The UN was to uphold respect for international law. 4. The UN pledged ‘‘to promote social progress and better standards of life.’’

However, admittedly the Russo-Ukraine War is a threat to the credibility of the United Nations.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February has caused Europe's fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II with more than 7 million Ukrainians fleeing the country and a third of the population displaced from their homes.

I’d like to say that the United Nations should be able to stop this war.  This level of aggression between 2 large European sovereign states has not been seen since World War II.  Isn’t this what the United Nations was formed to prevent?  And, yet, the aggression and fighting continues on Ukrainian soil.  Unfortunately, and as might be expected, Russia has prevented the Security Council from doing its job.  Holding a veto power in the Security Council, Russia has prevented any legal military action by member states or by UN peacekeeping troops, making the UN appear helpless.   

The United Nations has its challenges.  It is not easy keeping the peace between 193 members.  And, the biggest and most powerful members - the United States, Russia, and China - do not regulate themselves well.  However, the United Nations is not an organization of allies.  We don’t all get along all the time.  The UN is intended to be an association of all international states who work out ways to keep the peace between themselves.   

In 1945, at the end of WW II, the Soviet Union took an active part in the formation of the United Nations.  Remember, from 1941 the Soviet Union was an ally against Hitler in the War. In fact, the USSR defeated the Nazis in Eastern Europe and was first to occupy Berlin. The Soviet Union suffered a third of all WW II casualties - 20 million Soviets - the most of any country in the war.

Stalin, initially hesitant to join the UN, insisted that there be veto rights in the Security Council and that alterations in the United Nations Charter be unanimously approved by the five permanent members.  The Soviet Union demanded that all fifteen Soviet republics be made member states, until this was countered by the United States who said if the Soviet Union got to make all its republics members, then the United States’ 48 states should also be given separate membership.  A compromise was made that agreed to make Ukraine and Byelorussia (today’s Belarus) full members, but states of the United States could not demand membership.  Sorry, Texas.

In 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation took the Soviet Union's United Nations membership, including its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.  The question of automatic succession is not as obvious as it seems.  Some scholars argued that with the end of the Soviet Union, Russia should have had to be admitted like any other new member, thus eliminating Russia’s permanent seat on the Security Council.  In fact, this might have happened if in the early days after the breakup of the Soviet Union, all 14 Soviet republics had separated from Russia.  But, in the beginning, only the 3 Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Georgia declared themselves separate.  In truth, politics was the real reason for Russian succession to membership.  Eliminating Soviet membership, and thus forcing Russia to reapply, would have created a constitutional crisis in the United Nations when Russia was one of two great nuclear powers.  It is questionable if the United Nations could have remained viable without the continued participation of Russia.

A reminder:

The United Nations has two voting bodies.

The General Assembly is made up of all 193 members - each has one vote.  Voting in the General Assembly on certain important questions—namely recommendations on peace and security; budgetary concerns; and the election, admission, suspension, or expulsion of members—is by a two-thirds majority of those present and voting. Other questions are decided by a simple majority.

The Security Council is the only UN body that makes decisions pertaining to the maintenance of peace, including sending in peace keeping troops. It is made up of 5 permanent members and 10 non-permanent members.  The 5 permanent members including Russian, China, France, the United States, and Britain have veto power over all decisions made by the Council. Notice neither Japan or Germany are on the Security Council, as the UN was created by the Allies of WWII and since they made the game, they get to make the rules.  The Security Council‘s powers include establishing peacekeeping operations, enacting international sanctions, and authorizing military action. The Security Council is the only UN body with the authority to issue binding resolutions on all member states.

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Un Timeline: Russo-Ukraine War

United Nations: In the event of a continuing, protracted war in Ukraine, 18 years of socio-economic achievements could be lost, with almost one third of the population living below the poverty line and a further 62 percent at high risk of falling into poverty within the next 12 months.

A Timeline

February 23: UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke to the General Assembly saying, “the decision of the Russian Federation to recognize the so-called “independence” of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are violations of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and inconsistent with the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”

February 24: Russia invaded Ukraine.  UN Secretary-General António Guterres said to Russia, “Stop the military operation. Bring the troops back to Russia.”

February 25:  Russia vetoed a resolution by the United Nations Security Council that would have declared Russian aggression against Ukraine a violation of Article 2, paragraph 4 of the Charter of the United Nations.  The resolution called for Russia to immediately cease its use of force against Ukraine, and withdraw all its military forces immediately, completely, and unconditionally from that country’s territory.  The resolution did not pass because of Russia’s veto.

February 27: The Security Council members, frustrated by the veto vote of Russia, voted that the General Assembly convene an emergency special session.  This was a procedural act, not subject to the veto power, requiring only the vote of 9 members.  The vote was 11 to 1.  The Security Council last called for convening an emergency special session of the General Assembly was during the 1982 Lebanon War (Israel v. Syria), and in 1980 during the Soviet-Afghan war.

Russia urged Security Council members not to call the General Assembly, “We hear lies and deceit about the indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian facilities, hospitals and schools” when “the Russian army does not threaten civilians in Ukraine; it does not shell civilian infrastructure.”  Instead, it is the Ukrainian “nationalists” who are using civilians as humans shields and deploying rocket launchers in civilian areas — acts that are used by terrorists and must be condemned.”

February 28: General Assembly called an Emergency Special Session.

Secretary General: “The fighting in Ukraine must stop now.” Noting that bombardments by Russian have been pounding the country day and night, he said the capital, Kyiv, now finds itself surrounded. Ukrainians have been forced to shelter in subway stations and more than half a million have fled across the country’s borders. Citing credible accounts of serious damage sustained by residential buildings and other non-military infrastructure, he described the attacks as unacceptable and stressed that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected.

Russia: The representative of the Russian Federation said the root of the current crisis lies instead with Ukraine itself. Kyiv flouted the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements, failed to engage in dialogue with the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and turned a blind eye to the people of Donbas. Against that backdrop, President Vladimir Putin decided to react. “There is a need to de-Nazify Ukraine,” he stressed, adding that his country is exercising its right to self-defense from Ukraine, which strives to obtain nuclear weapons, seeks North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership, and is making false territorial claims against the Russian Federation.

Chili: Milenko Esteban Skoknic Tapic said the fact that the Assembly is meeting in emergency format for the first time in decades bears witness to the international community’s frustration at the Security Council’s failure to adopt a decision in favor of peace.

March 2: The General Assembly Member States adopted a resolution 141 to 5, demanding the Russian Federation immediately end its invasion of Ukraine and unconditionally withdraw all its military forces from that neighbouring country. The Assembly also deplored Belarus’ involvement in this illegal action. The 5 in opposition were: Belarus, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Eritrea, Russian Federation, and Syria.  35 nations abstained.

March 16: The International Court of Justice ruled in UKRAINE v. RUSSIAN FEDERATION: “The Russian Federation shall immediately suspend the military operations that it commenced on 24 February 2022 in the territory of Ukraine.”

April 7: The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for Russia to be suspended from the Human Rights Council.  The resolution received a 2/3 majority of those voting.  The vote took place on the anniversary of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, and the Ukrainian ambassador drew parallels between the crimes committed by Russia with the Rwanda genocide.

Ukraine: Ukrainian Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya urged countries to support the resolution. “Bucha and dozens of other Ukrainian cities and villages, where thousands of peaceful residents have been killed, tortured, raped, abducted and robbed by the Russian Army, serve as an example of how dramatically far the Russian Federation has gone from its initial declarations in the human rights domain.”

May 19: “United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a global food crisis exacerbated as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Guterres said Ukraine and Russia together produce almost a third of the world's wheat and barley and half of its sunflower oil, and Russia and its ally Belarus are the world's number two and three producers of potash, a key ingredient of fertilizer. The secretary-general said the number of people facing severe food insecurity has doubled in just two years from 135 million pre-pandemic to 276 million today.” DW News. Note: DW News is Deutsche Welle (German Wave), a German public state-owned international broadcaster funded by German federal taxes.

June 8: United Nations reports - Food prices are at near-record highs.  Fertilizer prices have more than doubled. Without fertilizers, shortages will spread from corn and wheat to all staple crops, including rice, with a devastating impact on billions of people in Asia and South America, too.  Record‑high energy prices are also triggering blackouts and fuel shortages in all parts of the world, especially in Africa. 

Movies on Ukraine or dissent

Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (2015). Oscar-nominated film directed by Israeli-American Evgeny. Watch on Netflix.

Last week I watched this film on the Maidan Protests. This documentary is a mesmerizing street view of 4 months of protests (2013-2014) against the Russian leaning Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych. This incident led to a Russian military intervention through the annexation of Crimea by Russia, and the creation of the self-proclaimed breakaway states of Donetsk and Luhansk. This sparked the Donbas War, and culminated with Russia initiating the full-scale invasion of the country today in 2022.

Mariupolis 2. 2022. Mantas Kvaderavičius. Won Cannes Film Festival prize. Not yet available for viewing.

This documentary made by Lithuanian director Mantas Kvaderavičius won the special Cannes Film Festival prize of the Golden Eye. The director was killed on April 2, while trying to escape Mariupol. The film is about the life in Mariupol during the invasion. The film was finished by the director's wife Anna, as Kvaderavičius hadn’t yet finished.

This film is a follow-up to Kvedaravicius’ 2016 documenary, Mariupolis, which followed the lives of everyday citizens in Mariupol as the threat of war with Russia escalated. Kvedaravicius returned to Mariupol this year to document Russia’s invasion of the country. The city of Mariupol has been completely destroyed by the Russian military.

Servant of the People. Starring Volodymyr Zelensky, today’s President of Ukraine. 2015. Watch on Netflix.

This is a light comedy, a nice change from the heavier films listed. I watch episodes from this show as a break from the bad news streaming out of eastern Ukraine. The experience is a bit surreal. In the show you can get a view of a bit of normal life in Ukrainian homes and on the streets of Kyiv before the War. It is hard to believe that many of those streets and buildings featured in the film are today in rubble after 2 months of bombings from the Russians. And, secondly, it is also hard to believe that the actor who plays the President is now the real live Ukrainian President, hiding in bunkers, addressing the United Nations asking for help, walking with the troops, consoling the injured and the families of the dead. Zelensky has become a dynamic hero to Ukraine. A hero to the world.

1st ukrainian War Crime Trial

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Update: June 10, 2022

From The Conversation, “Ukraine: British POWs sentenced to death after ‘show trial’ which appears to violate Geneva Conventions” - “Two Britons captured while fighting in Ukraine’s armed forces have been sentenced to death after what has been condemned as a “show trial”. Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, who surrendered to Russian forces during the siege of the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, were convicted on the charge of “being a mercenary”. They have a month to appeal and, if successful, they could receive a life or 25-year prison sentence instead of the death penalty. Pro-Russian officials in the breakaway republic of Donetsk, where the trial was conducted, claimed the men’s actions had “led to the deaths and injury of civilians, as well as damage to civilian and social infrastructure”.But what observers have called a “show trial” on “trumped-up charges” raises important questions both about their status under international law (specifically, whether they are entitled to prisoner of war status) and the compatibility of these trials with the rights that come with such status.

Russian Show Trials?

Britons Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner with Moroccan Brahim Saadoun, who were captured after the siege of the the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. (Image taken from footage of the Supreme Court of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic.)

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Law and Justice in Ukraine during Wartime

May 23, 2022.  Judges in Kyiv handed down the first verdict on a war crime in the Russo-Ukraine War.  Sergeant Vadim Shishimarin, 21, was convicted of shooting a 62-year-old civilian, Oleksandr Shelipov, in the northern region of Sumy. Sergeant Shishimarin, who had pleaded guilty at the start of the trial, was sentenced to life in prison. 

According to Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova the defendant was a Russian sergeant whose convoy was under attack from Ukrainian forces and while driving out of the village he and his fellow soldiers saw a villager talking on the phone while he rode his bicycle. The young sergeant, afraid that Mr. Shelipov would report their location to Ukrainian forces nearby, fired his rifle at the old man.

The sergeant was charged under Ukrainian Criminal Code, Article 438 §2 and the trial drew crowds to the courthouse in Kyiv. International scholars and journalists followed the case and the trial was broadcast on YouTube.

The case was tried without a jury according to the defendant’s wishes. The evidence presented by the prosecutor included the self incriminating testimony of the defendant, ballistics on the gun used, testimony from a friend of the victim, as well as testimony from another soldier who had been with the sergeant and was also captured at the same time the sergeant was brought in.

There are some interesting legal points about this trial.

1. It is unusual for soldiers to be tried for war crimes during active wartime. This is in large part because of logistic problems relating to arrest and to access to courts. It is unusual for a war crime trial be conducted during a conflict. A case from the Bosnian War is the point of reference of a previous trial conducted during war. In that case another 21 year old soldier, Serbian Borislav Herak, was arrested for brutally killing and raping a massive number of civilians. A report on this Bosnian case by John F. Burns won a 1993 Pulitzer Prize, “A Killer’s Tale: A Serbian Fighter's Path of Brutality.

2. What is the point of a war crimes trial? Justice, revenge, deterrence for future crimes? In history, war crimes have been dealt with through crowd justice and hangings, to a more recent establishment of international tribunals.

3. What are the elements of the crime of a war crime in Ukraine’s Criminal Offenses Against Peace, Security of Mankind and International Legal Order, Article 438. What are possible defenses? Is there a defense of self defense where it can be argued that in the time of war that troops found it necessary to kill a civilian informant that might give witness to the location of troops?

4. How difficult is it for the defendant to put on a defense during war? Would a defense attorney in another jurisdiction have recommended to the defendant that the sergeant plead guilty or decline a jury trial, as was done in this case?

5. The Russian defendant-soldier in this Ukrainian case is very young. He represents the kind of troops that are being sent to Ukraine in the early part of the war. War is unpredictable and dehumanizing, and untrained and inexperienced troops may respond aggressively out of fear, bravado, war fatigue, or sometimes from directives from commanders. Also, there is a factor of out-of-controlled-ness that comes in war. There have been reports of horrible crimes committed by Russian troops. The tendency of troops to commit war crimes is exacerbated by the Russian leader Putin speaking of Ukrainians as “Nazis,” or in demeaning ‘other’ terms such as dirty khokhols, extremists and terrorists, immoral aggressors.

6. Is the local Ukrainian criminal court the best place to try a war crime? Robert Goldman, a scholar on international human rights at American University Washington College of Law, argues that this case should have been tried in a military court. Professor Goldman wrote, “international humanitarian law is a highly specialised area. Military court officials will have the training required to understand the nuances in a way that civilian courts will, by and large, not.” This is not possible in Ukraine as Yanukovych, the president deposed in the Maidan Revolution in 2014, abolished all military courts in 2010. (This is good fodder for another article.) Respectfully, I am also not sure a military court in Ukraine would have the training Mr. Goldman refers to. And, finally, would a military court in Ukraine be viewed internationally as unbiased? I am concerned about the appearance of fairness.  Should the trial have been held in Kyiv? Or in Ukraine, at all? Which brings up the question if it would be better to try war crimes outside the country with the International Criminal Court, an outside independent judicial body with plenty of experience in humanitarian law and with war crimes. I know, this is asking a lot. Interestingly, I read reports of ICC investigators working in Ukraine today.

7. Should we worry that the Russian’s will respond in anger to this trial and will seek revenge on Ukrainian soldiers? Goldman writes that the Russian military may respond in like and put on ‘show trials’ of Ukrainian defenders. In mid May nearly 1,000 Ukrainian fighters, who hid out inside Mariupol’s steel plant in south Ukraine, surrendered to Russian troops and Russia has threatened to put some of them on trial for war crimes. While a worry that the Russians will conduct war trials in a tit for tat in response to this Ukrainian war trial is legitimate, I think that is what the Russians will do anyway. Fear of the enemy putting on show trials may not be the best argument for not conducting war trials. In a perfect world, the Russians would send their defendants to the ICC to try the soldiers from Ukraine, but I can’t imagine this happening under this Putin regime.

8. There is an interesting side note relating to the Ukrainian judiciary. According to a coordinator for a human rights organization, “At present, the trial of Shishimarin looks like what we have dreamed of,” she said. The defendant was brought to trial quickly. Online media and the public were given access to the court hearing. The activist gave the impression that both speed and accessibility are unusual in Ukrainian courts. According to Ms. Reshetylova, it took “a full-scale Russian invasion for the Ukrainian judiciary to understand that transparency and accessibility in warfare is not only a matter of justice, but also an element of justice to satisfy the victims.”

   According to the Ukrainian Criminal Procedure Code, Art 27 §2 “In courts of all instances, criminal proceedings are conducted openly.” Only in very limited cases, may the trial be conducted ‘in camera,’ i.e. without public admittance. Also, an audio recording of the trial must be available. Article 28 §5 requires “Everyone shall have the right for a charge to be subject of a trial within the shortest possible time or criminal proceedings concerned closed.”

   In my study of Ukraine, at the early stages of Ukrainian statehood, I heard horror stories of long incarceration before trials. On the other hand, I was welcome to watch criminal and civil trials as a member of the public. Admittedly, those trials were neither controversial nor political.

Boris Bondarev, Russian United Nations Diplomat

May 24, 2022: "My name is Boris Bondarev, in the MFA (Minister of Foreign Affairs) of Russian since 2002, since 2019 until now - Counsellor of the Russian Mission to the UN Office at Geneva.

For twenty years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year.

The aggressive war unleashed by Putin against Ukraine, and in fact against the entire Western world, is not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia, with a bold letter Z crossing out all hopes and prospects for a prosperous free society in our country.

Those who conceived this war want only one thing - to remain in power forever, live in pompous tasteless palaces, sail on yachts comparable in tonnage and cost to the entire Russian Navy, enjoying unlimited power and complete impunity. To achieve that they are willing to sacrifice as many lives as it takes. Thousands of Russians and Ukrainians have already died just for this.

I regret to admit that over all these twenty years the level of lies and unprofessionalism in the work of the Foreign Ministry has been increasing all the time. However, in most recent years, this has become simply catastrophic. Instead of unbiased information, impartial analysis and sober forecasting, there are propaganda clichés in the spirit of Soviet newspapers of the 1930s. A system has been built that deceives itself.

Minister Lavrov is a good illustration of the degradation of this system. In 18 years, he went from a professional and educated intellectual, whom many my colleagues held in such high esteem, to a person who constantly broadcasts conflicting statements and threatens the world (that is, Russia too) with nuclear weapons!

Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred. It serves interests of few, the very few people thus contributing to further isolation and degradation of my country.

Russia no longer has allies, and there is no one to blame but its reckless and ill-conceived policy.

I studied to be a diplomat and have been a diplomat for twenty years. The Ministry has become my home and family. But I simply cannot any longer share in this bloody, witless and absolutely needless ignominy."

---

This simple eloquent renunciation of Putin and the Foreign Ministry is a clarion call to all Russians. Bondarev -not a name most of us know - is stationed in Geneva, as a member of the Russian Foreign Mission to the United Nations. He has been quietly doing his job for the last 22 years working for the Russian Foreign Ministry and is happy and honored to be assigned to his position in Geneva. So, why give up his cushy career with the Russian government? Because the war is a crime, the Russian aggressors want power and wealth more than the well being of its citizens, and the purveyors of war are isolating and humiliating Russia. That’s why.

According to the New York Times, “The Kremlin has gone to extraordinary lengths to silence dissent on the war. On state television, the war’s opponents are regularly branded as traitors. A law signed by Mr. Putin in March punishes “false information” about the war — potentially defined as anything that contradicts the government line — with as much as 15 years in prison. Partly as a result, virtually no government official had spoken out publicly against the invasion until Mr. Bondarev’s resignation.”

What bravery! This is the ultimate sacrifice and honor to stand up to power. Dedicated to the precepts of the United Nations, Mr. Bondarev bravely has set the bar for all Russian workers. For that matter, he sets an example to all government and political leaders throughout the world.

---

HIDE YOUR PAPERS UNDER THE POTATOES

mbfitzmahan. Volodymyr Kovalchuk. Lutsk, Ukraine. 1997.

FALL 1997

A man came to the KGB office.  He looked frightened.  ‘My talking parrot has disappeared.’ The agent was confused.  “That’s not the kind of case we handle here. Why don’t you go to the police?’ The man frowned, “I know that, but I am here to tell you officially that I disagree with the parrot.”  

Viktor was a man who liked a joke.  On my first day at the university, Viktor, the dean of the law school, took my hand and smiled,  “I am happy you are here to help us get a new perspective.  A class in comparative law is just what we need. I must warn you, though, we have no textbooks, no printer, and no computers.  Sometimes we don’t even have lights,” he laughed.   This time he wasn’t joking.

I came prepared to teach about American and European law, but I didn’t know anything about Ukrainian law.  There was nothing  written in English so I asked Viktor if he would introduce me to an attorney who could teach me a little something about Ukrainian law. “Hmmm,” he pondered.  “I know!  I will introduce you to Volodymyr.  He’ll know what to do.”

Volodymyr Kovalchuk was neither a professor nor a lawyer.   I wasn’t sure why I needed to meet him.  He  looked like an ordinary fellow.  About 5 foot 8 with greying hair, he looked a bit like Martin Freeman in The Hobbit.  He spoke English, but not fluently.  How was this kind, simple man going to help me?

A retired communist bureaucrat, Volodymyr was a member of the Communist Party, one of a chosen few.  In the late 1980s less than 4% of the Ukrainian population were members of the Party of the Soviet Union.  Membership in the Party was a hard sought after honor that brought guarantees for a better job, better living quarters, and a better life.

This unassuming looking man held massive power to decide who got a passport or who did not. Many people owed Volodymyr.  In Ukraine, who you knew and who owed you, were valuable commodities. A passport, a propiska, was a valuable asset when the State restricted personal movement.  A passport was needed not only to travel abroad (a rare privilege), but to travel within the country – to take a trip to Kyiv, Moscow, or even to your Aunt Natasha’s in L’viv.  To get a place to live, a job, or to attend a university, you needed to produce your propiska.   

Volodymyr Kovalchuk‘s Communist Party Membership book.

I shook hands with Volodymr and exchanged the requisite pleasantries.  Before I could explain what I needed, he looked directly in my eyes as if to weigh my commitment, “So you want to meet some attorneys.  Do you also want to talk to some judges?”  This would be more than I expected!  Of course I did!  “Do you want to know how the legal system works?” he asked.  “That is precisely what I need to learn. Can you help me?” I asked.  “Well, tell me.  Do you want to know how the system is suppose to work, or how the system actually works?”  He turned to me with that little Hobbit look, “If you want to learn how the system is suppose to work, this will take a couple of months.  If you want to learn how the system really works, this could take us years.”

My modest idea to interview a handful of attorneys turned out to be a complicated, sometimes unnerving, three-year journey into the bowels of Soviet and Ukrainian jurisprudence. When I needed information, Volodymyr knew who to ask.  When I needed to hear the truth, a more intricate and dangerous request, he knew how to find it.

Solely through the interview process with the help of Volodymyr, I gathered volumes of  information on the new legal system of Ukraine.  I ultimately compiled and analyzed the data and wrote America’s first piece of scholarship on the Ukrainian legal system, in particular its flawed court system.  Columbia University published my study under the long title, “Vestiges of Soviet Control Mechanisms in the District Court of Ukraine.”  

I did all my interviewing in the province of Volyn, primarily in its capital, Lutsk.  Between 1997 and 2000, I met with 100 jurists and attended trials and visited jails. I did all this knowing only bits of Ukrainian and Russian.

Volodymyr taught me how to “do business” in his culture.  He taught me to drink brandy in the morning with Judge Milishchuk.  Vodka in the afternoon with the prison superintendent.  “Chut, chut, just a little. Sto grams, 100 grams,” Volodymyr encouraged. He taught me that this was how trust and friendships were forged.  “You must bring a gift, befitting the importance of the official,” Volodymyr instructed.  So I took the de rigueur gift of Scotch whiskey to the judge and some cigarettes and vodka to the prison warden.

“Hide your papers,” he advised, “under the potatoes.” Volodymyr revealed the dangers to me that all Ukrainians knew. “Don’t carry around tapes of the interviews. Or your photographs. They will stop and search you.”   “Who will stop me?” I asked him.  “The KGB…I mean the SBU.  They are the same! Absoliutno!” he warned.

Volodymyr Kovalchuk of Lutsk, Ukraine, and my friend of 20 years, died on May 1, 2017. “Volodymyr thought you were a very noble person,” my friend wrote me.  “I saw him about 6 months ago.  We stood outside my apartment and reminisced about those years when the Fitzmahan’s lived in our town.”

Many of my friends from Ukraine are suffering.  Jobs have dried up and pensions are not sufficient to pay for retirement.  Many have left and moved to other parts of Europe. Those who could not leave, stayed behind dreading a Russian invasion and feared for their survival. I will miss my friend very much.  I will miss his humor, his fearlessness, and his devotion to the truth.

Since Volodymyr’s death, the Russians have invaded twice. In 2014, Putin’s troops invaded and occupied Crimea in the south as well as sent in troops to support separatists in the Donbas region in the east. This latest brutal incursion in 2022 comes as a result, in part, because the Ukrainian government has finally begun to move forward from the calamity left by the earlier Soviet/Russian occupation. Ukraine’s corrupt pro-Putin leadership was replaced in 2014 with pro-Europe leadership that made strong efforts to eliminate corruption and solidify a government committed to a liberal democracy including hopes to fix the judicial system. The latest president, Volodymr Zelensky moved to replace corrupt members of the Constitutional Court. Last year, the Prosecutor General indicted Viktor Medvedchuk for treason and attempted theft of government property in Crimea. Viktor Medvedchuk is a friend of Putin and has been identified as Putin’s choice for the next puppet leader of Ukraine.

Biden: Cold War Warrior Armed for 2022 war

Biden Leadership

The world holds its breath as two warriors of the Cold War face off.

Did Donald Trump’s words and actions influence whether the Russian president invaded Ukraine? Did he have any impact on how prepared Ukraine would be at the time of invasion?

History will judge. In another century, history writes that Neville Chamberlain’s policy of appeasement empowered Hitler to attack Poland and then march across Europe. Winston Churchill said of Chamberlain: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.”

Putin was pleased to see Americans increasingly politically and socially divided under President Trump, assured that America’s discord would weaken the country making it unable to reunite in a resolve to fight against Russian aggression. Putin is no friend of the United States. The day he invaded Ukraine on February 24th, Putin said, “the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is in its entirety, [an] ‘empire of lies’ … As for our country, after the disintegration of the USSR, [the United States and Europe] immediately tried to put the final squeeze on us, finish us off, and utterly destroy us.”

Fortunately, Joseph Biden is president of the United States.  Biden, an elected statesman for half a century, has more foreign policy experience than any other president in U.S. history - 3 times more experience than George H.W. Bush, who had the next longest.  When Biden entered the Senate in 1973 Leonid Brezhnev was First Secretary General of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Followed by Andropov, Chernenko, and Gorbachev. Biden has experience dealing with Soviet trained dictators, including Vladimir Putin. 

The peace of the world is in the balance as two bulls of the Cold War face off. In the shadow of the most perilous war to break out since World War II, President Biden is well qualified to help the United States and its allies.

Foreign leaders and press are relieved and impressed by Biden’s leadership against Putin and Russia. London based The Economist wrote in March, “Mr Biden’s administration’s response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been prompter, bolder and more effective than even the most faithful Atlanticist could have predicted. Nato is united behind American leadership and pushing the boundaries of collective defence.”

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote, “President Biden has displayed great leadership, consulting and convening allies, exposing the lie that America’s commitment to Europe is somehow diminished.”

The Japan Times editorial on March 4, 2022 wrote, “The West, and virtually the entire world, has united to oppose the invasion of Ukraine. While many leaders deserve credit for helping to forge this coalition, a good deal of the credit goes to U.S. President Joe Biden, who has demonstrated remarkable acuity in handling this crisis.”

The editorial continued, “The speed with which all parties agreed on sanctions and the severity of those measures is an example of the success of Biden’s strategy….These achievements are even more impressive given the damage that his predecessor Donald Trump did to U.S. alliances, multilateralism and the rules-based order. The most important lesson of the last week has been that international cooperation and coordinated action in pursuit of shared values and principles are essential to the survival of that order and to the peace and security it creates.”

And article concluded, “The protection of national interests is best achieved through cooperative actions, not myopic or narrowly defined nationalism. And throughout the crisis, Biden has focused attention on where it belongs. He has applauded the heroism and resilience of the Ukrainian people and condemned Putin for his aggression. He has not made it about himself or put himself at the center of the unfolding crisis. For 70 years, the world has looked to the U.S. for leadership in international crises.… there remains a critical need for leadership, albeit leadership of a new kind. The world is fortunate to have Biden in the White House as it grapples with a world in transition.”

Joseph Biden, NATO, and the world face a very different and difficult conflict with Russia. Unable or unwilling to send troops into Ukraine, most of the world is sending military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. According to the Ukraine Support Tracker, “the U.S. is the largest supporter of Ukraine, with the equivalent of 7.6 billion euros since the outbreak of war (data as of March 27, 2022). All EU countries combined total 2.9 billion euros, plus 1.4 billion euros from EU institutions and 2 billion euros from the European Investment Bank. The UK, Canada and Japan have pledged a combined 1 billion euros worth of aid.”

This massive amount of aid is in addition to impositions of severe sanctions trageting Russia’s trade, companies, individuals and their financial sector. The European Union (EU) and the UK alone account for around 40% of Russia’s trade in goods and services. “Russia is a major exporter of energy and industrial metals, and Russia and Ukraine together supply over 25 percent of world exports of wheat. Europe is particularly dependent on Russian energy, with 47 percent of natural gas and 25 percent of oil imported from Russia. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Tur- key import over 75 percent of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and many countries in the Middle East and Africa rely on imports of wheat and other com- modities from Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to food insecurity.”

On the other hand, sanctions placed on Russia are expected to have a significant impact on Russia’s economy. “The World Bank forecasts that on the basis of sanctions announced in March 2022, by the end of 2022, Russia’s GDP will be 11% lower, investment 17% lower, inflation will rise to 22%, and exports and imports will fall by 31% and 35% respectively” Western allies are expecting that these sanctions will also impact Russia’s ability to wage war, in large part because many of Russian imports are for technology needed for military weapons.

Great Putin Disciples

Vladimir Putin is a war criminal

The Great Putin Disciples: Trump and the Far Right, how much harm have they caused?

Let me be clear. Vladimir Putin and the Russians are to blame for the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

Yet, to what degree do the American Far Right and Donald Trump share the guilt?

Fox News’ Tucker Carlson parrots Putin’s defense of Russia and, worse, blames Ukraine for Russia’s aggression on Ukraine. Speaking of American sanctions against Russia, Carlson said, “No American government had ever done anything like that before.” RIA Novosti, a Russian state news agency, quoted Carlson and wrote that “the average U.S. citizen is simply horrified by what is happening.” Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said on the Russian owned television station RT, “We understood long ago that there is no such thing as an independent Western media…only Fox News is trying to present some alternative point of view.”

Far Right politician, Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) said: “Remember that Zelensky is a thug. Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies.” Not one to worry about sounding pro-Putin, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said on March 15: “NATO has been supplying the neo-Nazis in Ukraine with powerful weapons and extensive training on how to use them.” Ohio Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance, supported by Trump, said on Feb. 19: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.”

According to Thomas Rid, a professor at Johns Hopkins University who studies Russian information warfare, “People are asking if the far right in the U.S. is influencing Russia or if Russia is influencing the far right, but the truth is they are influencing each other.”

Trump says he admires Putin’s control of the annoying media, holding onto power, and admits that winning as more important than good governing.

March 2022, Trump said during an interview, “This is genius…Putin declares [a large portion of Ukraine] as independent. Oh, that's wonderful!" Immediately after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Trump said, “Putin’s taking over a country for two dollars' worth of sanctions." Trump told a crowd at Mar-a-Lago, "I'd say that's pretty smart. He's taking over a country -- really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in."

In 2014, Trump praised Putin for occupying Crimea, a region of Ukraine.  He said that Putin did “an amazing job of taking the mantle.”

And then, Trump supported Putin’s campaign against Western Europe and the organizations structured to keep Europe safe from Russian aggression. Trump said NATO was "obsolete," and threatened to withdraw the United States from it. NATO is an organization designed after World War II to protect Europe from Russian aggression. 

Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton in late February 2022, appeared on Newsmax and told the host that it was “not accurate to say that Trump’s behavior somehow deterred the Russians…I think one of the reasons that Putin did not move (to invade Ukraine) during Trump’s term in office was he saw the President’s hostility of NATO. Putin saw Trump doing a lot of his work for him, and thought, maybe in a second term, Trump would make good on his desire to get out of NATO, and then it would just ease Putin’s path just that much more.”

Former Trump White House chief of staff John Kelly said that stopping Trump from exiting NATO was one of his most difficult tasks as chief of staff.

In March 2022, Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist and former senior adviser of Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign said, "There's just a lot of evidence that Trump was wrong on this issue [Ukraine] and that in many ways, we undermined the NATO alliance and we undermined Zelenskyy's position in the eyes of Russia and Putin."

Also, in June 2020, Trump approved plans to withdraw troops from Germany. The Pentagon opposed Trump’s plan to remove one-third of the American force in Germany because it would compromise Europe-based defenses against Russia. Even Republican lawmakers opposed the withdrawal.

Finally, Trump weakened American military and diplomatic support for Ukraine during his administration.

Trump opposed sanctions against Russia that were in response to Russia’s 2014 aggression against Ukraine in Crimea and Donbas. John Bolton said, “In almost every case, the sanctions (against Russia) were imposed with Trump complaining about it, saying we were being too hard.”

On top of that, Trump weakened Ukraine militarily by blackmailing Ukraine, refusing to provide promised arms unless Ukraine would gather evidence against Trump’s political opponents. When Ukrainian President Zelensky asked to purchase more Javelin anti-tank missiles, Trump responded by saying, “I would like you to do us a favor, though.” John Bolton said, “Every other senior national security advisor--Mike Pompeo, Mark Esper at Defense--all of us felt that we needed to bolster Ukraine’s security and were appalled at what Trump was doing.”

Putin and his Russian troops have invaded an innocent sovereign nation and committed war crimes and inhumane acts of brutality. American conservative broadcasters and politicians relieved Russia from blame and expressed indifference to the suffering of the Ukrainians.

Video taken near Kharkiv by an American volunteering with the Ukrainian military. This is the hellscape Putin continues to create. pic.twitter.com/1vCRRNRWG1

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) April 23, 2022

This mass, forced deportation is approaching the scale of the mass, forced deportations of the Stalinist era https://t.co/9wmYaWO38K

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) April 23, 2022

Putin needs war

Putin needs this war.

On February 21, 2022 Putin said he never believed in an independent Ukraine. Ukrainians are Russians. It is a mistake of history that they think otherwise. Putin refers to the concept of nationalism as a “virus.”

And, Putin whined that although Russia kindly pulled Ukraine out of debt post ‘91, the mother country has been given no respect. In fact, Ukraine scoffed at Russia, electing pro-West leadership. How ungrateful! “It was striking how the Ukrainian authorities always preferred dealing with Russia in a way that ensured that they enjoy all the rights and privileges while remaining free from any obligations,” he said.

On February 24, 2022 upon sending Russian troops into Ukraine, Putin claimed he had no other choice; he must defend Russia. "If Ukraine was to join NATO it would serve as a direct threat to the security of Russia." Putin said he also had an obligation to protect Russia’s way of life from depraved Americans who “sought to destroy our traditional values and force on us their false values that would erode us, our people from within.” 

Putin’s two speeches on February 21 and February 24 inform me that:

Putin believes:

1. Ukraine is part of Russia.

2. Ukraine is ungrateful to Russia.

3. NATO is a military threat to Russia.

4. Ukraine and the West are disrespectful of Russia - her history, culture, and values.

5. He does not like America.

Putin also thinks:

1. His popularity in Russia will rise if he fights Ukraine.

   Putin is right.

   “President Vladimir V. Putin’s approval ratings have reached levels unseen in years. 83 percent of Russians said they approved of Mr. Putin’s actions, up from 69 percent in January.” (New York Times, March 31, 2022)

   “One reason Russians still support Putin and the war in Ukraine has to do with the propaganda and disinformation being sown by the Kremlin. Last week, Putin banned the spreading of “false information” about the war — including calling it a war. He also blocked Facebook and Twitter, as well as a number of Western news outlets including the BBC, making it even harder for Russians to get outside information. And among state-sponsored media in Russia, the war is downplayed and cast as a peacekeeping mission designed to liberate Ukraine from Nazis and drug-addled dictators.” (March 11, 2022, fivethirtyeight.com)

2. Ukrainian ideas could lead Russians to revolt against Putin.

   I don’t know about that.

   But, Putin liked a Ukraine that was led by I-like-Russia leaders. Ukraine was led for much of the last 30 years by pro-Russia leadership. That record was broken as a result of the 2004 Orange Revolution and then the 2014 Maidan Protests. Both revolts led to the overthrow of Putin’s handpicked choice, Viktor Yanukovych. The Orange Revolution ended up giving a victory to the West leaning president, Viktor Yushchenko.

   Yanukovych, stuck around until he did get elected a few years later and then he amassed a fortune of $12 billion, gave all the lucrative government jobs to his friends and family, and moved Ukraine back to the I-like-Russia circle. Of course, the I-like-Russia guy also said “no” to Ukraine in the EU.

   This made the people mad, resulting in the 3 month Maidan Protests in 2014 when 28 protesters were killed. The I-like-Russia Yanukovych was forced to escape to Russia. A new president was elected who was committed to the rule of law, a state free of corruption, and an association with the European Union.

   The last straw was in 2019 when the Ukrainians overwhelmingly elected a T.V. star, Volodymyr Zelensky. This election of the I-like-the-West candidate happened even though Putin had annexed the Crimea and separated parts of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast in 2014, preventing around 12% of eligible voters, many Russian supporters, from participating in the election.

   The Zelensky election was bad for Putin because Zelensky wants Ukraine to become a member of the EU and he was instrumental in charging Putin’s friend, Viktor Medvedchuk with treason. That was very bad, because Viktor has a long friendship with the Kremlin - so much so that Vladimir Putin is the godfather of Medvedchuk's daughter.

Well, that was it! Putin knew this had to stop. He must invade Ukraine and teach her a lesson, protect Russia, protect his totalitarian rule, and defeat NATO and the United States.

And now here we are after 6 weeks of Putin’s War. His Russian troops are stalled. Putin and his soldiers are accused of war crimes for the brutal murder of women and children in Bucha and Mariupol. Ukrainians, both Russian speaking and Ukrainian speaking, are united in their resistance to the invading Russia. Both NATO and the EU are united and stronger than ever in their efforts against Russia. Putin’s ersatz allies are offended and may think that Putin has gone off the rails.

And what about those majority of Russians who support their leader? I hate to believe that most Russians believe what Putin is telling them. Unfortunately, there are Russians who look down on Ukrainians and speak of them as backward khokhol. Some Russians also believe that this war is the fault of the United States and that if America wants to wage war against Russia, almighty Russia will win. We Americans know from our last years in the Trump era how lies and propaganda from a popular news agency can form opinion. How it can feed into an underlying seething anger of an unhappy population who are poorly educated and insulated. Putin has successfully glommed onto years of Russian resentment against the United States and Ukraine.

Is it possible that the democratization of information can break through the wall of lies and propaganda built by Putin and his state run news agencies? Will young people turn against Putin and this war?

Yevhen Sverstiuk, the Ukrainian dissident who fought the Soviet government and was sent to the Gulags for it, told me in 2004, “Young people want to be free, but most do not want to be politically active. They don’t want to cause trouble. They don’t want to die for the truth. They think that the era of struggle is over and that now everyone can live the way they want to. They are happier believing lies.”

Do young Russians of 2022 want to be free and are they willing to fight for that freedom?

War is Outdated

War. We are done with that outmoded way to solve problems. Haven’t we humans evolved past invasions, bombings, and genocide? That is for history. That is for the movies. At worse, maybe some small time dictator of a little Middle Eastern, Balkan or African state will use those old fashioned tools of war. We now turn to the United Nations, International Courts, and the World Trade Organization to solve problems.

Sadly, the past is not past. War is real in 2022.

35 days ago Vladimir Putin sent the Russian troops across the border to invade Ukraine. He is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people in just over a month.

Where are the rules? Why is this happening?

Human-kind is trying to end war. After 200,000 years of modern humans, we have finally evolved enough to take global efforts to stop war.

After the ‘war to end all wars,’ World War I, we made a major jump and created the League of Nations. But, like all new laws, there were too many loop holes. And peace was not permanent. World War I morphed into World War II on two sides of the globe. Then, we got really serious. We created the United Nations. That was 77 years ago. Only .0005 % of man’s history. So, you see, it is not surprising that we aren’t very good at this peace keeping thing. We are new at it.

From the ashes of the two wars in the 20th century we formed the Charter of the United Nations. We admit that the best of mankind can not develop socially, economically, or philosophically during war. Spending our best men and women on battles. Spending our wealth on invasions and military equipment. Destroying our ability to trade. Killing our babies. We can do better.

The Preamble to the Charter of the United Nations:

WE THE PEOPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS DETERMINED
to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war…
AND For these ends
to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbours, and
to employ international machinery for the promotion of the economic and social advancement of all peoples…

Very cool, right?

I know! I am a big fan of the United Nations and its good work.

Admittedly, the United Nations has its limitations when it comes to keeping the peace. But, it has done pretty well since World War II, hasn’t it? I know, there was the Korean War only 5 years after WW II. And then the Vietnam War. Well, I realize there is a list of wars, military maneuvers, “special military operations/denazification.” I did a Google search on the “wars of the 21st century.” Shocking! Whoa! And who is involved? The United States is doing a lot of warring in the Middle East. And the United States got help: “Eighty-four Coalition partners have committed themselves to the goal of eliminating the threat posed by ISIS and have already contributed in various capacities to the effort to combat ISIS in Iraq, Syria, and globally.” Russia has been busy - Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine. There are others: Israel and Palestine, Chad and Sudan, Macedonia, North Korea and Japan…

OK. Despite all of those battles, operations, and other euphemisms for war. And despite the development of nuclear weapons, no leader has pushed the big red button that could lead to the destruction of the world. There has been no red button pushing, despite those countries being led by some pretty crazy and self serving leaders, i.e. Mao, Khruschev, Trump, and Putin.

We are closer to eliminating war than any other time in the history of human-kind. The world wars of the 20th century as well as the development of nuclear weapons have left us with a particularly bad taste for wars. Wars are no longer small duels or skirmishes; wars can wipe out whole generations of men and a country’s culture and economy. To wage war, the positives must look like they outweigh the negatives. And the little people, not only the king, have learned that they will be fodder for the leader who is hiding in his castle untouched by bombs. Democracy is not a friend of war. The 18 year old soldier might be talked into thinking that war will bring him glory and the girls, but soon war is just death, illness, lost limbs. War doesn’t get you a job when you go home. War makes you crazy.

Men marched asleep. Many had lost their boots,
But limped on, blood-shod. All went lame; all blind;
Drunk with fatigue; deaf even to the hoots
Of gas-shells dropping softly behind.

Wilfred Owen, “Dulce et Decorum Est”

But, today there are more advocates for developing systems to insure peace. The Dalai Lama. Bishop Tutu. The European Union. Your mother. Didn’t she teach you to be kind? To solve your problems and disagreements by working through things? And, that soccer coach in high school - did she show you how to play and win with compassion?

“Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter.” — Yoda (“Star Wars”)