Image: The New Yorker
Who is Putin and what can we expect? Is Putin the source of all evil? I have collected a couple of views for you to consider. The first is a long, yet insightful and entertaining discussion featuring my favorite modern Russian scholar, Mark Galeotti. The 2nd is a short synopsis of the views of a scholar from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tatiana Stanovaya.
July 18, 2022 - Today’s New York Times guest opinion by scholar Tatiana Stanovaya encapsulates her 2 decades of study of Putin in the title of her article, Putin Thinks He’s Winning. According to the scholar, Putin has three goals which Ms. Stanovaya creatively sees as fitting together like a charming matryoshka doll - the Matryoshka Doll Theory?
In summary - here is Ms. Stanovaya’s theory.
1st, Take control of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Check! Almost.
2nd, Take Kyiv and Russify Ukraine. Not so easy.
At first, Putin expected to take Kyiv in the early days of the War. Drat! That didn’t go as quickly or effectively as he expected. Those pesky Ukrainians resisted and showed a resolve he did not predict. No worries. Putin has shifted his expectations and sees this as a longer goal. Ukraine will understandably get so tired of this War, Putin will make sure that the innocent civilians suffer - bomb maternity wards, destroy apartments buildings and wedding halls, evacuate Ukrainian children to Russia. Use of assorted war crimes are the preferred military strategy. So, Kyiv will have to accept Putin’s demands and they will accept a Russification of the country. Putin likes to call it the ‘Deukrainianization” of Ukraine. Charming. Rename streets and towns (how about Putingrad?), rewrite history, get rid of those nasty nationalists, make Russian the only language of trade, and be sure that the Russian view of education and culture prevails. Nifty! It has been reported that Russian authorities are ordering that everything painted blue and yellow (the colors of the Ukrainian flag) be removed or changed. Ukrainians in occupied lands have been given Russian passports. The Ukrainian government will be replaced with pro-Kremlin toadies and any cooperation with the West will be limited to whatever the Kremlin says is OK.
3rd, Build a new world order. The Putinmare. (Get it? Putin and nightmare combined. Just a little humor. Sorry...)
Of course, Putin’s evil Oberhauser persona, wants a new world order. Really? Yes, really. Putin sees the West (especially the immoral Americans) as the archenemy. According to Ms. Stanovaya, Putin predicts that there is a future for a “good West” that will conduct friendly business relations with Russia. Putin favors those amenable leaders like himself, including Viktor Orban in Hungary. Even America’s Fox News’ Tucker Carlson loves Orban and his modified election laws to favor his party and that he has curbed freedom of the press, passed anti-LGBTQ laws, and waged a war against immigration. Putin also likes Marine Le Pen in France, and of course, Donald Trump - all of whom are willing patsies to overlook Putin’s bad behavior and support ways of weakening democracy. Putin is pretty sure that high inflation and high energy prices will support the ‘good West people’ and make the electorate rise up against those old fashioned leaders who fight for democratic institutions.
According to the Stanovaya, “There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him (Putin) should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.”